Betting odds: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
- Over/Under: 7.5
- First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg (8-7, 3.87 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 1.42 ERA)
Zylbert's 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 95-67-4, +20.95 units
Yesterday's Result: Royals-Pirates Under 7.5, Keller vs. Musgrove (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
If the season was already complete, Strasburg would finish with the highest ERA (3.87) and WHIP (1.18) of his nine-year career. Has he really been just off in 2018?
I wouldn't say that at all. Remember, Strasburg dealt with a couple of different injuries that cost him most of May, June and July. Sandwiched within those months were starts in which Strasburg was pitching while injured, and that certainly took its toll on his overall numbers.
Since Strasburg came off the DL for good about a month ago, though, we've seen the 2009 No. 1 overall draft pick in his regular outstanding form. Tonight will mark his sixth start after being activated, and in each of the last four, he's allowed two runs or fewer. He's also done a great job of keeping the ball in the park lately, allowing just one home run in his last 24.2 innings.
Strasburg delivered one of his best performances of the season in his last start when he limited the Phillies to just one run and five baserunners in seven sharp innings. He also struck out nine, his most Ks since being activated.
I think Strasburg will stay in rhythm, especially considering his opponent tonight. The 30-year-old is 16-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 29 career starts against the Marlins.
In the last two seasons, Miami has barely been able to touch him. Strasburg has faced them four times since the beginning of last year, picking up the win in all four tries while registering a dominant 0.67 ERA over 27 innings. The Marlins only scored in one of those four meetings.
We have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Strasburg, but what about his counterpart, Alcantara?
This will be just the fourth career start for Alcantara, but he's looked impressive in his brief career. In fact, Alcantara is coming off back-to-back outings in which he tossed at least seven innings while surrendering no more than two runs and collecting six strikeouts.
Look for Alcantara to keep it up and at least be decent, and as long as Strasburg continues his strong September push, we figure to be in nice shape.
It looks like you can wait until first pitch to see if the line inflates to 8, but even if it sticks at 7.5, I'll still be on this under.
Play: UNDER 7.5/8
