Blue Jays vs. Brewers Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | +150 |
| Brewers Odds | -175 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Brewers are tied for the National League Central Division lead with a 40-33 record this year. Their opponents, the Blue Jays, occupy the top wild card spot in the American League with a a 40-30 record. Toronto is 11.5 games behind the Yankees in the American League East Division despite being slight preseason Vegas favorites to win the division.
These two teams both have playoff ambitions, and with anything possible in baseball's tournament-style playoffs, this could potentially be a World Series preview. Who will get the job done this afternoon?
Blue Jays Bats Need to Step Up Against Burnes
The Blue Jays offense has been heating up lately as catcher Alejandro Kirk is hitting .321 with nine home runs on the season. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, Kirk had to leave last night's game early after suffering a hand injury. Kirk's status is up in the air for this afternoon's contest. It's possible that Kirk wasn't going to play in Saturday's game anyway as a rest day for the catcher with this being a day game after the Friday night game.
Either way, he's a significant piece of the Blue Jays' offense at this point, and they will need all the help they can get against Corbin Burnes. The Brewers' ace has been quite good lately as he's completed at least six innings, allowed no more than two earned runs, and struck out at least eight batters in three of his last five starts.
In his last start against the Cardinals, Burnes threw seven scoreless innings, allowed two hits and two walks, and struck out 10. The Blue Jays have a similar lineup to the Cardinals in that they have powerful right-handed hitters who don't strike out often, but that still might not be enough to beat Burnes.
Brewers Should Tee Off on Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi hasn't completed five innings in any of his last four starts. He has a 4.94 ERA and a 5.25 xFIP while allowing a .256 ISO to right-handed hitters this year. Brewers righties Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe and Victor Caratini all have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Last season, Tyron Taylor and Andrew McCutcheon each had ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching, too.
Kikuchi has struggled with the longball in his recent short starts. He has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four starts and has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts. The Brewers are at home, and their offense should have the upper hand early against Kikuchi.
Blue Jays-Brewers Pick
I like the Brewers here. They have an obvious advantage with Burnes on the mound, but also Kikuchi has consistently failed to complete in five innings recently. If he's not even going five innings here, how can the Blue Jays keep up in this one? I don't think they can, and I'll take the Brewers on the run line at -1.5 (+120) on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+120)
