Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 8 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +130 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -156 |
The Cleveland Guardians' struggles continued in the first game of this series as they lost yet again and were only able to muster one run. The Guardians have now lost eight of their last 10 games and are spiraling away from the top of the AL Central.
However, they have a solid chance of getting back on track tonight as they'll send Tanner Bibee to the hill. Although Bibee will have to contend with a dangerous Blue Jays lineup.
Speaking of a dangerous lineup, the Guardians have not been that, but getting to face Yusei Kikuchi could be the recipe to get the bats going. So, what's the best way to bet on tonight's matchup?
Let's dig in to find out.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has remained firmly in the playoff picture for the duration of the season, and their lineup is a big reason why. They currently hold the sixth-highest batting average in the majors, and while not having Bo Bichette is a significant loss, what's allowed the Blue Jays to stay afloat is the significant contributions they've gotten from others.
We all know how dangerous Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman are, but be aware of veterans like Brandon Belt and George Springer. Also, one guy who can't be overlooked is Davis Schneider, who has done nothing but punish the baseball since his arrival this past weekend.
However, going up against Bibee is no easy task. The rookie must be given credit, as he's been a revelation for the Guardians' rotation this season. He comes in with a 3.14 ERA and has generated a great deal of soft contact.
However, data suggests he is due for a bit of regression as his xERA is 3.62 and his FIP is 3.87. If he experiences any of that regression tonight, it could result in a crooked number on the scoreboard against this Toronto lineup.
Cleveland Guardians
We go from one lineup that is very dangerous to one that has proven not to be. The Guardians have the third worst xwOBACON in the majors and are last in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
However, the Guardians also have the fourth-highest xBA in the majors, as they are the toughest team to strike out in the American League. They may not have much pop, but their ability to put the ball in play is elite, and it may pay off tonight against Kikuchi.
At the surface, Kikcuhi has been decent for Toronto, as he sports a 3.67 ERA through 22 starts. However, a closer look reveals he's due for significant regression.
Kikuchi sits in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity and the 23rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He has not fooled many hitters this season with pitches over the plate, and his only saving grace has been strikeouts.
Though we know the Guardians don't strike out much, and they are a bad matchup for Kikuchi, who is prone to traffic on the bases. Expect the Guardians to cash in early tonight,
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Betting Pick
The market quickly came in and bet this total down from its opening number of 8.5. While that angle is logical, as the Guardians have largely struggled and the Blue Jays are without their sparkplug at the top of the order, a closer look shows why this game will go over the total.
Both starters are due for regression, and they will not be receiving much help from the elements as the wind will be blowing out to the right, and the barometric pressure is below 1011 mb, which is better for carry.
Additionally, both bullpens are due for regression as well. Cleveland and Toronto may be sixth and seventh in bullpen ERA, but both their FIPs are 4.06 and 3.87, respectively.
All signs point to the over tonight.
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