Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds, Picks, Predictions: Two High-Quality Offenses Face Off (May 5)

Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds

Toronto will head across Lake Erie to Cleveland after holding off the Yankees on Wednesday to avoid the sweep at home.

The Guardians are coming off splitting a doubleheader with the Padres on Wednesday, and have won four of their last five games.

Both teams currently sit in second place in their respective divisions — Toronto is 16-10 while Cleveland is 11-13.

The AL Central is the only division that has a second-place team with a losing record.

These squads will kick off a four-game series, and after Toronto went 5-2 against Cleveland last year, the Guardians are hoping they will have better results in 2022.

Blue Jays' Offense to Kick Into Gear?

Acquired by Toronto at last year’s deadline, José Berríos (RHP) started this year a bit shaky, allowing seven runs in his first two starts. He has since settled down and surrendered just four runs in the past three outings. Berríos sits with a 2-0 record and a 4.13 ERA.

The concern for Berríos is that his xERA is almost double that (8.13). In fact, he has the fourth-highest xERA of all qualified pitchers in the league.

Berríos has been tagged for a 53.1% hard-hit rate and is allowing a .452 xwOBA. Opponents are hitting almost .400 against his fastball this year.

So far this season, the Blue Jays' offense has not exactly been the world-beaters most people expected. After leading the league in wOBA last season, Toronto ranks just 13th this season, sitting in the middle of the pack. The Jays are also 15th in wRC+.

The power has still been there, though, as the Blue Jays rank second in home runs — behind only the Yankees. Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Matt Chapman all have at least five home runs. Springer leads the team in wOBA and wRC+ this season.

Ramirez Guiding Guardians' Offense

Cleveland’s Aaron Civale (RHP) has basically been the exact opposite of Berríos, with his actual ERA more than double his xERA.

Through four starts, Civale has allowed 17 earned runs and owns a 10.67 ERA. He has allowed six runs in two straight games and has yet to make it more than four innings this season.

However, Civale does have a xERA of 4.43, which is at least a little better. Civale’s main pitch is his cutter and unfortunately for him, teams are batting .438 against it with a .575 wOBA.

The Guardians' offense begins and ends with Jose Ramirez. The perennial MVP candidate leads the team in hits, home runs, RBIs, walks, wOBA and wRC+.

In fact, he leads the entire league in RBI and ranks second in wOBA and wRC+ — behind only Mike Trout. Ramirez has helped power a Cleveland team that sits sixth in both wOBA and wRC+.

Blue Jays-Guardians Pick

No matter how you feel about analytics, this is a pitching matchup that sets up for an appetizing over.

If you are more of a traditional old-school person, well then Civale has been terrible, with a 10.67 ERA and .349 batting average against.

If you’re a new-school person and a believer in the advanced stats, well then Berríos has been bad, with a 8.13 xERA and a .452 xwOBA allowed.

Either way you look at it, these are two struggling pitchers and two offenses capable of doing some damage.

Cleveland’s offense has actually been better than Toronto’s so far this year.

In a game where the Blue Jays have the worse of the two offenses, I’ll gladly back the over.

Pick: Over 7.5 (Play to -120, or Over 8 to -110)