Blue Jays vs. Mariners AL Wild Card Odds
| Blue Jays Series Price | -168 |
| Mariners Series Price | +144 |
Series Schedule
- Game 1: Friday, Oct. 7, 4:07 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 8, 4:07 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 3: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2:07 p.m. ET, ABC (if necessary)
Toronto Blue Jays
- World Series Odds: +1600
- Pennant Odds: +650
- Regular Season Record: 92-70
- Pythagorean Record: 91-71
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 118 (2nd)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.80 (11th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.89 (16th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
A trendy World Series pick in the preseason, the AL East favorites couldn't quite keep up with the behemoth Yankees over the course of a full season, but rode a steady rotation and world-beating offense to an easy wild-card bid.
It wasn't quite the season many imagined from Toronto coming into the season, but the Blue Jays are in the playoffs for the second time in the past three years, seeking their first playoff win since 2016 and first postseason series victory since their last World Series title way back in 1993.
Offense
The strong suit of this ballclub is its offense. This is a deadly lineup from top to bottom highlighted by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This is a lineup that boasts five starters with a 129 wRC+ or higher — for reference, 100 is average — highlighted by the breakout season of Alejandro Kirk.
The Blue Jays are second in MLB in wRC+, wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate. George Springer has been dominant in the leadoff spot and Matt Chapman has added 27 home runs of his own. Kirk has a .289 average, 132 wRC+ and a higher walk rate than strikeout rate.
The list goes on for this offense, which has the potential to be a terror every single night and can keep up with any offense in baseball.
Rotation
The Blue Jays rotation is the most interesting part of this team. Kevin Gausman anchors the rotation and if there were any questions whether he could be an ace, they were answered to the tune of a 3.35 ERA and an elite 24.4 K-BB rate.
Alek Manoah continues to dazzle in his sophomore season (2.24 ERA) as well. After those two, the questions start to rack up. Jose Berrios has seen his ERA jump up nearly two full runs from a season ago and has been as inconsistent as it gets.
Ross Stripling (3.01 ERA) likely rounds out the rotation since Yusei Kikuchi was moved to the bullpen. Stripling, due to his recent success, could be in contention to start the wild-card finale if it gets to three games.
Regardless, there’s no question the offense will score. But can the starting rotation keep things from getting out of hand?
Bullpen
Jordan Romano continues to be a staple in the backend of the bullpen and has taken yet another step forward in his first full season as a closer. He is Mr. Consistent with a 2.14 ERA and 36 saves.
This was the weakest spot of the Blue Jays roster, but GM Ross Atkins was active at the trade deadline and brought in Anthony Bass and Zach Pop from Miami and both have excelled for their new team with sub-2 ERAs.
Yimi Garcia (22 holds), Adam Cimber (19) and Tim Mayza (16) are often the high-leverage arms late in games alongside Bass. While this bullpen ranks No. 16 in xFIP, they are top 10 over the past month. –Charlie DiSturco
Seattle Mariners
- World Series Odds: +3000
- Pennant Odds: +1100
- Regular Season Record: 90-72
- Pythagorean Record: 89-73
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 107 (8th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.05 (16th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.73 (8th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
The Mariners got off to a slow start, but a 14-game winning streak in July vaulted this team into the wild-card race. That streak was clearly the turning point in the Mariners’ season and then once Seattle went out and got Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, it became clear Seattle was looking to make an October run.
The Mariners struggled in September, but clinched a wild-card berth and are in the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Offense
The Mariners’ lineup isn’t the most intimidating in the postseason, but — as evidenced by that 14-game winning streak — if the Mariners get hot, they can compete with anyone in the league.
Julio Rodriguez, the frontrunner to win the American LeagueRookie of the Year Award, tops the lineup with an impressive power-speed combo as he hit 27 homers and swiped 25 bases in his rookie campaign.
However, Rodriguez went on the Injured List in late September with a back strain, so his health will be important to monitor moving forward.
Rotation
The Mariners made one of the biggest trade deadline splashes when they acquired Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds. Castillo and Robbie Ray anchor the rotation while Logan Gilbert likely serves as the third starter.
If a series goes long or if the Mariners need a long man, those duties will likely fall to George Kirby or Marco Gonzales. It’s also important to note that T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly, which gives a bit of a boost to the Mariners at home.
Bullpen
The postseason is all about winning close games and the Mariners have plenty of experience in that department. With over 30 one-run wins, Seattle is certainly familiar with the tension of games that are close late. The Mariners bullpen is among the best in the league in terms of xwOBA.
Andres Munoz features a triple-digit fastball, a dominant slider and an elite whiff rate — all of which could play big roles in the playoffs. And Munoz isn’t the only Mariners’ reliever capable of missing bats as Erik Swanson, Matt Festa and Paul Sewald each also rank in the 84th percentile or better when it comes to strikeout rate. –Will Boor
