Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Pick
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | +1.5 -188 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | -1.5 +155 |
After losing three out of four to the Astros at home, the Blue Jays will head out to battle another AL West foe in the Mariners. Seattle has not fared much better as it has lost six of its last 10 games. It has seen its AL West lead shrink to just two games with the Astros surging.
The Mariners, however, were able to salvage the final game of their three-game series with the Orioles. They will send ace Luis Castillo to the mound on Friday at T-Mobile Park, where he will be opposed by Kevin Gausman.
The All-Star pitching matchup between Gausman and Castillo headlines tonight's Blue Jays vs Mariners game and also means runs could be at a premium. Find my Blue Jays vs. Mariners pick below.
Toronto Blue Jays
After compiling a 3.10 ERA over the last three years and making two All-Star appearances, it is safe to say that Kevin Gausman is having a down year. He comes into this start with a 4.75 ERA that elevated to 5.65 in June.
However, five of his six starts came against the Orioles (six earned runs), Yankees (seven earned runs), Guardians and Red Sox. The other came against the Athletics and was a complete game shutout.
While the Mariners hold a 15-game lead over the last-place A's, they are comparable offensively, as they rank 27th and 28th, respectively, in runs scored.
Gausman has a 2.66 ERA over his last four regular-season starts against the Mariners. His Strikeout Rate is down compared to previous years, but remains above league average. He is still excelling at limiting walks and getting hitters to chase outside of the zone. That may help him put up a big strikeout number considering the Mariners lead MLB in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching.
With the Blue Jays expected to sell at the trade deadline, it will be interesting to see the reception that first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets in Seattle tonight. Guerrero has been one of the hottest hitters in MLB over the last two weeks. In that span, he is hitting .400 with six home runs, 20 RBIs and a 1.303 OPS. He has started to get some help from George Springer, who has four home runs and is hitting .326 in the last two weeks after an abysmal start.
However, his other running mate, Bo Bichette, is still hitting just .229 with a .613 OPS in between IL stints. He was scratched from Thursday's game with a right forearm contusion and is day to day.
Bichette has hit at least .290 in each of his first five MLB seasons. His struggles this season have contributed to a Blue Jays offense that is 24th in runs scored.
Seattle Mariners
Like Gausman, Castillo did not have a great month of June (5.13 ERA). He now has a 3.87 ERA for the season, but that drops to 3.19 at T-Mobile Park.
After racking up 219 strikeouts last season, Castillo will have a shot at 200 once again. He currently has 103 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings, with 58 punchouts in 50 innings at home. He struck out six in Toronto in April.
Castillo is just 1-3 over his last five starts. While he has been far from dominant of late, he has not gotten a lot of run support either. The Mariners have scored three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. They also scored just four runs through 24 innings against Baltimore before a five-run seventh inning on Thursday.
Julio Rodriguez sparked the offense with a home run on Thursday, his eighth of the year. However, that has been few and far between. Rodriguez has a .632 OPS this season, and after hitting .206 in June, he was demoted in the lineup, hitting seventh on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Mariners rank 11th in home runs as a team, but are last in MLB in batting average.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
In his last four starts against the Mariners, Gausman is averaging eight strikeouts per start and he has had at least seven in the last three matchups. He has had at least six strikeouts in six of his last 10 starts.
Meanwhile, Castillo has had five strikeouts in three of his last four starts against Toronto, 12-of-18 starts this season and 62-of-78 over the last 2 1/2 years.
By combining the two of them, we get even odds on DraftKings and slightly favorable to backing under 7.5 for the total.
Pick: Kevin Gausman 6+ Strikeouts/Luis Castillo Five+ Strikeouts Parlay (+100, DraftKings)
