Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+108 | 9 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -182 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -126 | 9 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +150 |
We covered the opening game of this series as the Baltimore Orioles helped us cash an over ticket in their 11-6 victory. However, Toronto responded with a much better effort on the hill last night to even up the series.
This rubber match will kick off Thursday's slate, and the pitching matchup leads it to be more like Game 1 rather than Game 2. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Blue Jays, and while he has been an enigma during his time north of the border, the Orioles may have his number.
Speaking of the Orioles, they will hand the ball to 6-foot-8 right-hander Tyler Wells. Wells has been solid for the Birds of the Beltway this season, but can he keep it going against a divisional rival?
Let's take a closer look to find out and uncover the best bet for this matchup along the way.
Toronto Blue Jays
I've spoken ad nauseam about how formidable the Blue Jays lineup was, is, and could be. However, the reality has been that only three guys have produced on a consistent basis.
It should be no surprise that their productive trio features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman. It's clear, however, that if the Blue Jays are going to make a run in the American League, they'll need more production going forward.
Toronto will be up against Wells this afternoon, and while they've handled him well in the past, they have yet to see this new version of him. Wells is throwing harder in 2023, but he's also throwing his changeup more, which has kept opposing hitters off balance.
Not only is his strikeout rate up substantially, but opposing batters have not been able to square him up when they have made contact, as his xBAA of .211 is in the 82nd percentile. If Wells successfully navigates the top of the Blue Jays' order, he should be in line for another stellar outing.
Baltimore Orioles
The one team that has been able to hang around the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East is the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has an impressive combination of young talented bats, solid starting pitching, and a lights-out back end of the bullpen.
However, for this matchup and our bet, they will need the bats to stay hot. The Orioles are in line to do just that: They are leading the majors in wRC+ and are hitting .310 as a team over the last seven days.
This scalding hot lineup will get to face Kikuchi. Baltimore has gotten to Kikuchi quite a bit in the past, as they've hit .275 off him as a team in 69 combined at-bats. What's interesting is that their average exit velocity in that sample size is 91.8 mph.
So not only have they seen the ball well, but they've struck the ball well, and Kikuchi is due to regress. That type of hard contact has been a theme for Kikuchi this season, and all the numbers point to it continuing this afternoon, as his FIP is 5.87.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Betting Pick
The AL East is the best division in baseball, and this matchup is a prime example of why. Both teams are over .500, but five games separate them in the standings.
We are going to see what separates these two clubs in the early going of this game, as there is a mismatch on the hill. Wells should be able to contain the meat of the Blue Jays' order while receiving plenty of run support from the hottest lineup in baseball.
Back the Orioles to be up halfway through this one.
Pick: Orioles F5 Moneyline |
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