Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | -135 |
| Orioles Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Orioles host the Blue Jays on Monday night in the first matchup of a three-game series between these AL East foes. This is the fifth meeting between these two clubs this season as the over is a perfect 4-0 thus far.
Will we get another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the pitching step up this time around?
Blue Jays' Strong Bullpen Looms Behind Kikuchi
There have now been nine or fewer total runs scored in eight of Toronto's last 11 games (73%), and this is a trend I expect to continue as left-hander Yusei Kikuchi is slated to take the mound for the Blue Jays.
Through 18 starts this season, Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. While those numbers are poor, Kikuchi has had some slightly better outings recently. Over his last four starts, he is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in each of Kikuchi's last five starts.
One of the better bullpens in the league will follow behind Kikuchi. Since July 1st, the Blue Jays' relief pitching ranks fourth in the league in ERA, fourth in WHIP, fourth in BA, 12th in SLG, and fifth in wOBA.
Lyles and the Baltimore Bullpen Are Trending Up
Like Toronto, Baltimore has been involved in many lower-scoring contests recently as there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 12 of Baltimore's last 15 games (80%). This trend should continue as right-hander Jordan Lyles is slated to take the mound for the Orioles.
Through 22 starts this season, Lyles is 8-8 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Like Kikuchi, Lyles possesses poor numbers but has been in better form recently.
Over his last seven starts, Lyles is 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. There have also been nine or fewer total runs scored in seven of Lyles' last nine starts (78%).
One of the league's better bullpens also follows Lyles. Since July 1st, the Orioles' relief pitching ranks fifth in the league in ERA, fifth in WHIP, ninth in BA, 13th in SLG, and ninth in wOBA.
However, this pitching staff may not get much run support as the Orioles are slated to go against the left-hander Kikuchi. When facing left-handed pitchers, the Orioles rank just 20th in the league in BA and 17th in wOBA since July 1st.
Through 49 career plate appearances against Kikuchi, the current Orioles roster possesses a mere .217 BA, .435 SLG, and .300 wOBA.
Blue Jays-Orioles Pick
While taking an under when Kikuchi is on the mound is usually a risky endeavor, it has paid off recently. We are banking on that trend to continue in this matchup, which is entirely possible against an Orioles team that has struggled against him and left-handed pitchers in general.
On the other side, Lyles should tame a powerful Toronto offense. Even if Lyles' stretch of good pitching does not continue in this game, I trust Baltimore's bullpen behind him to limit the damage.
I think the total at 9.5 is too inflated due to the surface-level numbers of Kikuchi and Lyles, along with the fact that the over has hit in each of the first four meetings between these two clubs this season. If the line moves towards the under, I would rather take Under 9 than lay more than -125 on Under 9.5.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) | Play up to (-125)
