Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-138 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +116 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -140 |
When Baltimore Orioles play-by-play announcer Kevin Brown brings up the season series against the Toronto Blue Jays on MASN tonight, he will not have to worry about a suspension. The Orioles have taken eight of the 11 matchups against the Blue Jays this season. However, the Blue Jays took game one of this series last night, a 6-3 victory in extra innings.
Toronto is a slight favorite (-130) to take game two as well with Kevin Gausman getting the ball. Jack Flaherty will oppose him for Baltimore. Gausman and Flaherty started against each other on Aug. 3, a 6-1 Orioles victory. Let's take a look at the Blue Jays vs Orioles pick that has value for tonight's matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays
Kevin Gausman has enjoyed a strong 2023 season as he is 9-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 187 strikeouts. However, he is coming off a rough outing in his last start against the Phillies. He allowed seven runs (five earned) on seven hits and had a season-low four strikeouts in and 5 and 1/3 innings.
He returns tonight to Baltimore, where he began his big league career after the Orioles made him the fourth overall pick in the 2012 Entry Draft. Pitching in Baltimore, Gausman is 25-20 with a 3.68 ERA. This season, he is 0-1 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against the Orioles. Gausman gives up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 12th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage (44.9%).
Fortunately for Gausman, a few of the league's hardest hitters play on his own team. Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette each have an Average Exit Velocity over 90 mph and they all rank in the 87th percentile or above in Hard Hit Percentage. Chapman and Guerrero combined for five hits in last night's win.
Bichette returned from the IL on Saturday, and he has picked up where he left off as the American League leader in hits. Bichette has a hit in each of his last three games and the Blue Jays have won their last three games. They are averaging 6.7 runs per game in that span.
Baltimore Orioles
Tonight, Jack Flaherty will be making his fourth start with the Orioles. His last two starts have not gone well. as he has allowed 10 earned runs in eight innings, both resulting in losses. However, he dazzled in his Orioles debut against Toronto, allowing just one earned run while scattering four hits and striking out eight in six innings. Flaherty also faced the Blue Jays on Opening Day with the Cardinals and he pitched five no-hit innings.
In that start, Flaherty also walked seven batters, which has been a microcosm of his season. When Flaherty is on, he can be elite. He ranks in 76th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 65th percentile in Hard Hit Percentile. However, he is in the 11th percentile in Walk Rate. He has walked 62 batters in 123 and 2/3 innings.
Backing Flaherty will be an Orioles offense that is seventh in the MLB in runs scored. Their young star duo, Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, get much of the attention and for good reason. Henderson took advantage of playing the MLB's worst team over the weekend, going 8-for-14 with two homers and five RBI against the A's, narrowly missing the cycle on Sunday. He brings a seven-game hitting streak into play tonight, hitting .462 in that span.
Ryan Mountcastle has been equally as hot this month. His eight-game hitting streak ended last night, but this month he is slashing .380/.458/.577 with four home runs and 14 runs batted in. He is hitting .372 since the All-Star break as well.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Flaherty has a 4.73 ERA this season, but he has had the Blue Jays' number this season with an 0.82 ERA in 11 innings. Additionally, none of the Blue Jays hitters have more than three hits or higher than a .250 batting average against him. I am expecting his success to continue tonight.
If he shuts the Blue Jays down again, the Orioles may not need a ton of offense off Gausman. However, they have shown that they are capable of getting to him. Rutschman, Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays each have at least four hits and are hitting over .333 against Gausman. A sleeper to watch tonight could be Adam Frazier if he is in the starting lineup. He is 16-for-41 (.390) against Gausman and went 2-for-4 in Gausman's last start against the Orioles.
Six strong innings from Flaherty with some help from his offense should have the Orioles in front. If they have the lead to the eighth inning, Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista have been lockdown all season. Expect them to shut the door en route to an Orioles victory.
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