The Minnesota Twins will host the Toronto Blue Jays in a three-game American League Wild Card Round series beginning on Tuesday at Target Field.
The Twins won the American League Central to lock themselves into the 3-seed in the AL postseason field. The Toronto Blue Jays snuck into the postseason on the second-to-last day of the regular season, winding up as the six-seed with Sunday's loss to the Rays.
The Twins, who will host all three potential games, opened as -144 favorites to advance to the ALDS at FanDuel. The road Blue Jays are +118 underdogs.
Below, you'll find the full schedule for this series, as well as a breakdown of both teams and how they got to this point.
All odds cited below via FanDuel. For updated odds on every series throughout the postseason, be sure to visit our MLB futures page. For individual game odds throughout the postseason at a variety of sportsbooks, visit our MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs. Twins AL Wild Card Round Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, October 3, 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 2: Wednesday, October 4, 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 3: Thursday, October 5, 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Toronto Blue Jays
- World Series Odds: +1800
- Pennant Odds: +700
- Regular Season Record: 87-75
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 109 (6th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.96 (3rd)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 4.21 (14th)
How They Got Here
Playing in what was the toughest division in baseball for the majority of the season, the Blue Jays spent just one day in first place. However, they’ve remained in the wild card mix throughout the season and put together a winning record in every month except May.
This team got here on the back of one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball. The lineup is loaded with talent, but its inconsistencies have held Toronto from its full potential.
Offense
Toronto managed to sneak into the top 10 in wRC+, but the Blue Jays are a very flawed bunch offensively. The Blue Jays were just 19th in Isolated Power for the season, so while they had one of the lowest strikeout rates around, they did very little when they did make contact.
Kevin Kiermaier has reclaimed a starting outfield job and is one of three lefties in the order now that Brandon Belt has been activated off the Injured List. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette remain the cornerstones of this offense, but Guerrero experienced a down season with just 26 homers and a measly 117 OPS+.
Rotation
Toronto is lucky enough to have a huge dilemma when it comes to picking out which starters to relegate to the bullpen this fall. Each of the five arms have posted a 3.82 ERA or better, with Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt looking dominant at times. The third guy here is likely Jose Berrios, who impressed this season with stronger strikeout and quality-of-contact numbers. However, considering Gausman and Bassitt are right-handed, Toronto may opt to start the red-hot Hyun-Jin Ryu at least once.
Bullpen
Toronto’s bullpen has been dominant all season and ranks in the top 10 in ERA and the top five in xFIP. Jordan Romano established himself as one of the top high-leverage arms in the AL, and the additions of Genesis Cabrera and Jordan Hicks have been massive considering both have posted sub-three ERAs since coming over from St. Louis.
This already-elite bullpen should get stronger given how well the members of this rotation have pitched, and don’t sleep on veteran Chad Green either, who should help out the back-end of this unit with his postseason experience.
—Kenny Ducey
Bet Blue Jays vs. Twins at FanDuel
Minnesota Twins
- World Series Odds: +2000
- Pennant Odds: +750
- Regular Season Record: 89-73
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 107 (9th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.03 (6th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 4.01 (5th)
How They Got Here
The Twins will probably be overlooked coming into the playoffs because they won the worst division in MLB. Minnesota has been the best team in the AL Central all year and was really never in doubt of eventually claiming the division title. As a result, the Twins haven’t been in a competitive race and never pushed into the upper-echelon of the AL to garner media attention.
Last season, injuries derailed Minnesota’s season. But now, the Twins have as much pitching and hitting depth as anyone in the American League.
Offense
It’s not 100% clear if Byron Buxton will be on the playoff roster, but Minnesota could use his power in the lineup. It’s very much a boom-or-bust lineup that ranks among the worst in strikeout rate and best in barrel rate. The Twins have a bunch of position players to mix into the roster. Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis have all had elite rookie seasons to surround the consistent production of Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler in the middle of the lineup.
Joey Gallo may also be back for the playoffs. He creates a natural platoon partner for lefty masher Jordan Luplow. Rocco Baldelli has a lot of position players at his disposal to mix and match with, but it’s not clear what the Twins’ best lineup is on a day-to-day basis.
On one hand, the lack of balls in play could hurt Minnesota. Traditionally, teams that strike out less do better in the playoffs. But it’s also all about homers against elite pitching, and Minnesota can hit for power with anyone in the AL.
Rotation
No one in the American League has a better 1-2-3 than Minnesota with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. Given the injuries in Texas, the lack of depth in Baltimore and the uncertainty of the Rays and Astros No. 3, the Twins can pitch with anyone.
If the Twins get into a longer series, Kenta Maeda is also an option to start and Bailey Ober could be used as a strike-throwing guy once through the order as a piggyback for one of the starters.
Bullpen
Jhoan Duran is comfortable throwing more than one inning if needed, which could be a boon for Rocco Baldelli as he tries to patch together an inconsistent bullpen. If you just look at the Twins' Stuff+ metrics, the bullpen looks great on paper. In practice, it’s been much more inconsistent.
The key development to watch is Chris Paddack. He returned from Tommy John surgery as a reliever and is throwing harder than ever by maxing out for short stints. The stuff is elite, and he could be a two-inning fireman if the command is there.
It’s hard to trust the bullpen, but Baldelli has options to find outs.
—Anthony Dabbundo
