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The Minnesota Twins are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays in what could be the most compelling Wild Card Round series. Toronto comes into October strong after battling through the best of the AL East to hold the last wild-card spot.
Meanwhile, the Twins are AL Central division champs, and they may not have had the stoutest competition in their division, but they cannot be taken lightly as this team has all the elements to make a postseason run.
However, we turn our attention to Game 1, where Kevin Gausman will face off against Pablo Lopez. These two aces are set to duel, and there are a few different ways to back or fade them in the player prop markets. So, let's dive into the top player props for Game 1 of the series.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Game 1 Props
You could not ask for a better matchup for Kevin Gausman in Game 1 from a strikeout perspective. The Minnesota Twins finished the regular season with the highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
Gausman has already proven he can dominate this lineup. The Twins' current lineup has complied 92 at-bats against Gausman collectively, and they have struck out 30.2% of the time.
In addition to this being a dream matchup, we also have two other factors supporting this. The first is the line value at the current price: Gausman has gone over this total in 61% of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -156.
Lastly, our Action Labs projections love this play. They have it graded as the highest edge on the slate, with Gausman projected for eight strikeouts in this matchup.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-127 at Caesars) | Play to -140
Brandon Belt is the one bat in this Blue Jays lineup that has seen Pablo Lopez more than a handful of times. Overall, he is 3-for-12 against him with a homer and double.
While Belt's xBA against Lopez points to some regression, It doesn't factor in that he comes into this series swinging the bat well. Belt missed about a week in September but finished the season strong, hitting .296 in the final month.
Belt has also proven that he can do damage when he puts the ball in play. He ranks in the 91st percentile in barrel rate and rarely chases outside the zone, as he ranks in the 96th percentile in that category.
So if Lopez wants to get him out this afternoon, he's going to have to challenge him in the zone.
On top of all that, we have some significant line value here. Belt has gone over this total in 62% of games played this season. That gives us implied odds of -163 that he will tally one in the hit column today.
Pick: Brandon Belt Over 0.5 Hits (-125 at bet365) | Play to -145
