Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | +150 |
| Yankees Odds | -170 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
It's been all-or-nothing thus far in the first series meeting between the Blue Jays and Yankees as both teams traded shutout victories through the first two games.
Toronto got six shutout innings from Alek Manoah and went on to win 3-0 in Monday's series opener, while the Yankees utilized five pitchers in their 4-0 triumph on Tuesday.
Having played five games on the schedule, both teams will go back to the top of their rotation, with Gerrit Cole getting the start for the Yankees while the Blue Jays counter with José Berríos.
In his first start, Cole allowed three runs in four innings of work against the Red Sox, whereas Berríos couldn't make it out of the first inning against the Rangers. That could be why the Blue Jays are as high as +150 underdogs on Wednesday.
Since there won't be too many spots where you'll find Toronto this big an underdog, this opportunity might be too good to pass up.
Blue Jays in Good Situational Position
Berríos would be wise to avoid looking at his ERA for at least the first month of the season. After retiring only one of the seven batters he faced on Opening Day, the Blue Jays right-hander has a whopping 108.0 ERA and a 69.06 FIP.
However, it's certainly plausible the former Twins ace had a few butterflies in his stomach after being given the responsibility of being the Blue Jays' leader.
I like the comments I saw from Berríos after the game when he acknowledged, "I was trying to be too perfect, like too nasty, and I didn't throw the ball over the plate."
If anything, those words likely confirm that his mindset or approach to the game was somewhat flawed. The good news is that per MLB's Statcast, his velocity looked fine as his average fastball was around 95 mph. His secondary pitches, such as his sinker (94.5 mph), changeup (84 mph), and curveball (84 mph), were also right in line with his career averages.
Let's not forget that Berríos finished the 2021 season with a 3.65 SIERA, which was slightly higher than his 3.52 ERA. He also has good numbers against this Yankees team as they have a .163 / .252/ .239 line against him in 89 at-bats. According to FanGraphs ' Pitch Values, his best pitch has always been his sinker, as it's been 37.1 runs above average throughout his career.
It's worth noting that in 2021, the Yankees were 8.8 runs below average when facing a sinker. Furthermore, with Berríos on the mound, his teams are 3-2 against the Yankees, and the Blue Jays are a perfect 2-0 with him when facing their divisional foe.
Yankees Not Invincible With Ace on the Mound
While we have limited data on the starters for 2022, we can begin to form some conclusions about the offensive prowess of each major league team.
One metric highly regarded in the sabermetrics community to assess offenses is wRC+. The Yankees are right in the middle of the pack (16th) with a 102 wRC+ value in this category. While that number is still above average, the Blue Jays are ranked even higher (11th) with a wRC+ value of 110.
If we turn to the Yankees starting pitching, we know that Cole is the undisputed ace of the rotation. Whether he was worth a $324 million contract is another question because a player's value is inherently determined by what the market is willing to pay.
Since joining the Yankees, Cole is 23-11 through 42 starts. That's a .676 winning percentage—slightly higher than his career mark of .650.
In 2021, Cole went 16-8 with a 3.23 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. His 2.93 SIERA is also lower than his ERA, suggesting he could be in line for an even better season. Yet, Cole has struggled against this Blue Jays lineup that's compiled a .331 / .378 / .553 line against him in 127 at-bats.
Cole's best pitches are his fastball and slider, as they were a combined 26.1 runs above average according to FanGraphs in 2021. However, this past season, Toronto was also above average against the fastball (41.6 runs) and slider (6.4 runs). He faced the Blue Jays twice in September and went 0-1 after allowing eight runs in 9 2/3 innings. It's not a stretch to say that this Blue Jays lineup won't mind getting their hacks in against the Yankees' ace.
Blue Jays-Yankees Pick
Despite both pitchers not being at their best on Opening Day, their teams still recorded a win.
If you had to pick which pitcher desperately needs to bounce back, however, I'd have to say it's Berríos. As a team, the Blue Jays are also looking to bounce back after failing to score a run on Tuesday. According to our BetLabs database that dates back to 2005, Toronto is 77-62 for 19.96 units when coming off of a shutout loss.
Backing the Blue Jays as an underdog has been profitable since last season as they're 26-24 for 8.6 units in this spot. Moreover, the Blue Jays are 9-4 for 9.6 units in this spot when their opponent is the Yankees.
Toronto's bullpen can be a worry considering it has the third-worst FIP at 5.47, but I think the Blue Jays' bats can spring to life here to give Toronto's relievers enough of a cushion.
You can grab Toronto at +150 over at Bet365. I would play this number down to +140.
Pick: Blue Jays (+150, play to +140)
