Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | +140 |
| Yankees Odds | -165 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees have been ice cold with the bats when facing right-handers in the month of August. The Blue Jays have a team 93 wRC+, while the Yankees have posted a team 81 wRC+.
Mitch White will pitch for Toronto on Saturday against Gerrit Cole of New York. Each pitcher is more than solid with Cole being the ace of the New York staff.
White pitches more to contact but ranks in the 85th percentile in hard hit rate and the 68th percentile in average exit velocity.
Cole ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage, so he aims to miss bats.
Either approach can work in this case, as each team has hit a bit of a roadblock.
White Can Stifle Yankees' Struggling Bats
White is not going to blow away any Yankee hitters. He only ranks in the ninth percentile in chase rate. He does have a solid 3.72 ERA and 3.96 xERA. He is more than serviceable in the Toronto rotation, so with a Yankees team that has not looked too sharp, he could be in line for a quality start.
Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter are on the injured list for the Yankees, so this has contributed to a slight fall from grace. The Yankees only have two hitters above a .330 xwOBA off of right-handers in the month of August (Aaron Judge and Josh Donaldson).
They only have three over .300 (Anthony Rizzo included). The rest of this lineup is brutal at the moment, and they will not be able to handle White with similar performances. They still have an 8.9% walk rate off of righties this month, but they are striking out more than 26% of the time.
Toronto’s bullpen is pretty weak. It owns a team xFIP of 4.26, and has three pitchers under a 4.00 mark. Tim Mayza being on the IL hurts the bullpen depth, but trust White to go at least five strong. If the game is close, Toronto will have to utilize the go-to arms.
Cole Stays Reliable For Yankees
Cole is the old faithful for the Yankees. He ranks among the middle of the pack in hard hit rate and average exit velocity, but his other peripherals are more than promising, as usual.
He has a 3.31 ERA against a 3.10 xERA, which makes him a touch unlucky. He strikes out more than 32% of opponents with a top 25% walk rate. A manager cannot ask for much more from a starting pitcher.
The Blue Jays do have five hitters above a .330 xwOBA this month, but the rest of the lineup falls off significantly. It is hard to fade Cole, but if there is a moneyline side to take, it would be the Blue Jays in this game, just given their lineup comparison to New York against righties.
The Yankees have also had their troubles in relief. They have a team xFIP of 4.57, only better than Colorado and Pittsburgh. Ron Marinaccio and Albert Abreu have been their most reliable arms. Their relief corps are in shambles right now, and this is one of the other reasons for such a terrible August.
Blue Jays-Yankees Pick
Take the under in this ballgame from 7.5 (-105), and play to 7 (-120). Cole and White are both capable starting pitchers, and neither lineup has shown the flash they once did this season.
Both teams are in a slump, so the edge goes to the pitching matchup. The most significant hurdle for the under in this game will be the Yankees’ bullpen, but expect Cole to go deep into this game.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) | play to 7 (-120)
