The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on Monday, March 31. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN and NESN.
Even without superstar Gunnar Henderson, the Orioles offense looks like it’s going to be dangerous after scoring 24 runs in their first four games. The Orioles split their opening series in Toronto ahead of Monday's home opener. Boston got a big Opening Day win against the Texas Rangers before dropping its the next three games. The Red Sox made a bunch of offseason moves after missing the playoffs for three straight seasons but quickly find themselves at the bottom of the AL East standings.
Find my Monday MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Orioles predictions and picks.
Red Sox vs Orioles Predictions
- Red Sox vs Orioles picks:Baltimore Team Total over 4.5
My Red Sox vs Orioles best bet is for the Orioles to score over 4.5 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Orioles Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Prediction
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | -142 |
- Red Sox vs Orioles Moneyline: Red Sox +120, Orioles -142
- Red Sox vs Orioles Spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-162), Orioles -1.5 (+136)
- Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under: 9.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5
Red Sox vs Orioles Preview, Prediction, Best Bet
Red Sox Betting Preview: Newcomb's Big Break
A former first round pick in 2014, Sean Newcomb struggled to find success at the MLB level. In eight seasons, he has been traded three times and was designated for assignment four times. After appearing in seven games for the A’s last season, Newcomb was designated for assignment and released by the organization in July.
This offseason, Newcomb signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox, the team he grew up rooting for. Injuries to three of Boston’s starting pitchers have opened up a spot in the rotation for Newcomb, who had a 0.63 ERA and 13 strikeouts during five Spring Training appearances.
Boston had a top-10 offense last season and then went out and added Alex Bregman to the mix just before the start of Spring Training. That move has thrown off at least one part of the locker room.
After initially shutting down the idea of switching positions, Boston’s best player Rafael Devers was forced to move to designated hitter to make room for Bregman at third base. So far, Devers has not adjusted well, becoming the first player in MLB history with 12 strikeouts in the first four games of a season.
Most of the Boston hitters have gotten off to a slow start, including Bregman. The one bright spot so far has been rookie Kristian Campbell. The team’s No. 2 ranked prospect made his MLB debut on Opening Day and has picked up at least one hit in every game.
Orioles Betting Preview: Picking Up Where They Left Off
Cade Povich was ranked as a Top 10 prospect in the Orioles organization last season and made his MLB debut in June. He finished the season making 16 starts, going 3-9 with a 5.20 ERA. It took a while for Povich to adjust, struggling through the end of August, however he finished the year strong.
During five starts in September, Povich pitched to a 2.60 ERA, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his five starts. He had a pair of shutout outings. Povich can strike out batters when he is locating his pitches, but command has been an issue for him. He had a 7.79 K/9 rate at the MLB level last season, but that rate jumped to 10.41 in the final month of the year, which is in line with his Triple-A numbers.
Even without Henderson, Baltimore’s offense is deep and talented. The O’s ranked fourth in scoring last year and hit the second-most home runs. They have picked up right where they left off, slugging 10 home runs in the first four games with six different players going deep.
The best news for Baltimore is the two early home runs for Adley Rutschman. After establishing himself as perhaps the best young catcher in baseball, Rutschman struggled last season but him regaining his form would be the best news possible for the Orioles to take another step this year.
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
When breaking down this game, it is clear that the area I have the most confidence in is the Baltimore offense. Even without Henderson, this team is deep with talent one through nine.
Last season, the Orioles averaged 4.9 runs per game and through four games they have averaged six runs per game and put up over nine runs in their two wins. Rutschman looks like he could be in for a big bounce-back season and Jordan Westburg has started six-for-13 with three home runs.
It is cool to see Newcomb get an opportunity to start for his hometown team, but he has been barely hanging onto an MLB role for the last few years. In eight seasons, Newcomb has made 175 appearances with 60 starts. He has a 4.51 ERA overall and has made just three starts since 2020.
The good news for O’s fans is that after three years of a suppressed hitting environment, the team decided to modify the wall in leftfield moving it in and also lowering the height.
What used to require 398 feet to clear a 13-foot fence at the deepest part of the outfield wall, will now be just 376 feet with a seven-foot wall. Right-handed hitters Rutschman, Westburg, Tyler O’Neill, and Ryan Mountcastle should have a much easier time, especially against the left-handed Newcomb.
If Povich continues to improve and can locate his pitches, he should have success and lead the Orioles to a win on Monday. However, I feel most confident in Baltimore plating at least five runs in its home opener.
Pick: Baltimore Team Total over 4.5
Moneyline
I'd lean Baltimore -140 if anything.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
Pass.
Red Sox vs Orioles Parlay
- Baltimore Team Total over 4.5 runs
- Cade Povich over 4.5 strikeouts
- Jordan Westburg 1+ hit
Parlay odds: +255
