The Cleveland Guardians host the Boston Red Sox on April 25, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Red Sox will look to snap a two-game losing skid as they open up a three-game series versus the Guardians Friday evening.
Tanner Houck (7.66 ERA, 24 2/3 IP) will look to earn his first win of the season as he battles against Ben Lively (3.86 ERA, 25 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction
- Red Sox vs Guardians picks: Boston Red Sox ML (-108, FanDuel | Play to -115)
My Red Sox vs Guardians best bet is the Boston Red Sox ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Guardians Odds, Betting Lines
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 -105 / -115 | -1.5 -145 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | Stat | Ben Lively (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 1-2 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 7.66 / 4.98 | ERA /xERA | 3.86 / 4.54 |
| 6.18 / 4.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.99 / 4.37 |
| 1.66 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 6.4% | K-BB% | 10.8% |
| 52.5% | GB% | 30.7% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Guardians Preview
Red Sox Stats and Insights
The Red Sox pitching staff got off to a dominant start in 2024 after making some team-wide adjustments to pitch usage.
Houck, in particular, was one of the Red Sox pitchers who was highly effective early on last season, pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA in his initial 78 innings of work.
Houck was not as effective in the second half of last season with an ERA of 4.23 and has gotten off to a rough start in 2025, entering this matchup with an ugly 7.66 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.
A deeper dive into Houck's start to the season suggests there is still cause for optimism, and the main reason his surface-level stats look so horrid is the fact that he soaked up 11 earned runs in Tampa Bay on April 14th.
While managing a strong start against the Chicago White Sox is not exactly difficult, Houck had a better performance in his last start against the White Sox, allowing just three hits and two earned runs over six innings of work.
Houck holds a respectable 4.41 xFIP, but in three of his five outings this season, he has pitched to an xFIP well below that average. He has struggled mightily to limit home runs, allowing 2.19 HR/9 after allowing only 0.55 HR/9 in 2024. His Pitching+ rating of 100 is down considerably compared to last season, but still suggests he can be at least a league-average starter moving forward.
The Red Sox have posted a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and rank fifth among MLB lineups in hard-hit rate against the side. Based on how well the majority of their top batters have produced versus righties historically, they should hit righties quite effectively this season (after ranking 12th in wRC+ against them last season).
Guardians Stats and Insights
Lively finished the 2024 season with a 3.81 ERA across 151 innings of work and holds a nearly identical ERA of 3.86 throughout his initial 25 and 2/3 innings this season.
A deeper dive into Lively's work suggests he may be closer to a league-average starter the rest of the way.
Four of Lively's five starts have come against teams that currently rank 26th or worse in terms of effectiveness versus right-handed pitching this season. The San Diego Padres are the only high-quality lineup that he has faced, and they managed seven hits and four earned runs off of Lively, who recorded just 13 outs.
Pitch metrics remain relatively low on Lively, with an 83 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal. He's posted a 4.54 Expected ERA this season behind a 10.1% strikeout minus walk rate.
The Guardians have outperformed the Red Sox versus right-handed pitching this season with a 107 wRC+. Still, they posted a 95 wRC+ against the side in 2024 and will likely not show such a significant improvement over a larger sample of play.
How To Bet On Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Houck's surface-level starts are drastically worse than Lively's so far this season, he has a higher ceiling and could prove to be the superior starter this season.
Lively is a good candidate to continue benefiting from the Guardians' excellent fielding, but the amount of hard contact he is giving up should still prove to be a concern over time. Based on the quality of Lively's stuff, batters should be able to continue putting plenty of well-hit balls in play against him this season.
The Red Sox offense has been somewhat inconsistent to start the season, but the heart of the order should prove to be highly effective against righties moving forward.
At -108, there looks to be value backing the Red Sox to win this game, and I would bet them down to -115.
Pick: Boston Red Sox ML (-108, FanDuel | Play to -115)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Red Sox to win the game at -108 is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Red Sox to cover the run line at +145 holds some value, and would likely hold a similar EV to backing them to win the game.
Over/Under
My lean in terms of the total would be betting the game to feature over 8.5 runs. While I'm optimistic that Houck is not as bad as he has shown so far this season, the main reason the Red Sox appear to be worth a bet is the potential that they will have a highly productive day against Lively.
Red Sox vs Guardians Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
- Red Sox ML
- Ben Lively Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Ben Lively Over 5.5 Hits
Parlay odds: +260 (DraftKings)
As outlined, the Red Sox should have a better chance of winning this matchup than their price suggests, given my belief that they will hit Lively effectively.
Lively has allowed over 2.5 earned runs in three of his five starts, despite facing just one lineup that has been close to average against righties this season.
The Red Sox rank 13th among MLB lineups in batting average versus righties this season and should be able to hit for average moving forward.
Lively should be given a fairly long leash to work in this game unless things go astray early, and backing Lively to allow over 5.5 hits looks to be a good way to round out our parlay.
