The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox just met a few weeks ago in the legendary Fenway Park, and the Astros sent the Fenway fans home with a sweep. Do the Red Sox have revenge on their minds? or will their struggles against the big, bad Astros continue?
Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction
As both teams are jockey for playoff spots, whether the division title is the Astros best chance, while the Red Sox have virtually no chance of winning the AL East. They currently sit 3.5 games behind the Royals for the final wild card spot and the Astros hold a season-best four game lead over the Mariners.
Here's my preview and Red Sox vs Astros pick and prediction.
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 8 -115/-105 | PK -107 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-125 | 8 -115/-105 | PK -110 |
Red Sox vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Tanner Houck | Stat | LHP Yusei Kikuchi |
|---|---|---|
| 8-8 | W-L | 6-9 |
| 3.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.01/4.00 | ERA /xERA | 4.49/4.03 |
| 3.28/3.58 | FIP / xFIP | 3.57/3.34 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 3.2 | K-BB% | 4.0 |
| 55.5 | GB% | 41 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul’s Red Sox vs Astros Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Can Houck Get Back On Track?
The Red Sox lineup centers around lefty hitters — particularly at the top of the order with Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and now Triston Casas back. All three perform worse against left-handed pitching, particularly Duran, who's OPS is around .700 versus lefties.
The lefty-heavy lineup needs production from some of the right-handed bats, and their aren't many. Look for right-handed hitters Danny Jansen and Rob Refsnyder to play pivotal roles. Refsnyder will slide nicely between Duran and Devers. He'll need to drive in Duran if he reaches base or gets on base for Devers in the second spot of the order.
Boston has managed to rank as the 14th-best offense in MLB versus southpaws, even with the reliance on left-handed bats. The one glaring issue against lefties is strikeouts, punching out on 27.9% of ABs against lefties — which ranks first in MLB. That formula doesn't bode well against Kikuchi, who has seen his strikeout rate surge since the trade.
Tanner Houck is in the midst of a career breakout year. He owns a 3.01 ERA with 3.28 FIP, but he's on the downswing lately with his innings reaching a career-high 146 innings, surpassing his previous career high of 100.
Houck's biggest adjustment to achieve an All-Star season is limiting his walks and maintaining a strong strikeout rate.
The changes Houck made shifted in the opposite direction of late. Houck has walked 2+ batters in seven straight outings and 3+ in four of the seven. Similarly, Houck's strikeouts plummeted, striking out 3 or fewer batters in five of seven starts.
Some of that should be attributed to fatigue since Houck is 46 innings over his career-high. We'll see if Houck can
get round into All-Star form once again.
I'll give credit where it's due since Houck limited the Astros ton one run over six innings a few weeks ago. He coasted through the lineup and induced no shortage of weak contact. He'll likely bring a similar approach in Houston to try getting deep into the game.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Astros Coming Off Of Strong Weekend
The Astros had a fairly easy weekend as massive favorites in a three-game series against the White Sox. They won two of the three games as their lead in the AL West continues to grow. Houston has won nine of ten games heading into this series versus the Red Sox.
Tell me if you've heard this one before: The Astros found value in a player others didn't see value in.
This time, it's Yusei Kikuchi, who the Astros reeled in for two of its top three prospects, Joey Loperfido and Jake Bloss. That move earned the Astros a ton of flack from the MLB community, and it made sense at the time. But I had a weird feeling the Astros would refine Kikuchi's sharp fastball and splitter to form him into a top of the rotation arm, like it has so far. Adding Kikuchi has provided an instant jolt to the Astros rotation, as he's struck out 8+ hitters in two of three starts.
More importantly, Kikuchi hasn't allowed more than four in any of his three starts in Houston, allowing four to the Rangers and three in two outings against the Rays. The one difference is Kikuchi walked 3 batters in two of three starts, which happened just four times during his 22 starts in Toronto. We'll see if it's a small sample, or if Kikuchi striking more batters out correlates with more walks. Kikuchi also hasn't completed a full six innings with the Astros, which might put stress on the bullpen for 10-12 outs.
So, how have the Astros continued winning? On the offense end, it relies on Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman. Alvarez is well on his way to AL Player of the Month, posting a 236 wRC+ with a .500 OBP, a 17% BB rate, and five homers. He's almost an auto-walk type of hitter, or he'll likely make the opponent pay. Bregman also boasts a 204 wRC+ with five homers. He started the year off terribly, but he's bounced back in a major way.
They rank 10th in MLB with a 114 wRC+ in August, with a 21% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate.
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love the Astros moneyline here. They looked like the better team in Boston a few weeks ago, and take that advantage to Minute Maid Park. I don't think Boston can touch the current version of Kikuchi. He looks like a totally different pitcher in Houston.
You're laying -125 on the ML right now, which I'd play up to -150. I think Houck is a bit over valued right now, and I want to stay away from him until we see a strong strikeout performance again. It's tough to gauge whether it's a rough stretch or if he's just super worn out. I'm backing on the Astros working Houck's pitch count, en route to a win.
The sharp money is on the Red Sox, as they hold 99% of the handle. That's despite receiving just 24% of the bets, so we'll see if fading the sharp money is the right move here. I'm banking on the home team.
Pick: Astros ML (-150)
Moneyline
Astros ML is the play here.
Run Line (Spread)
Neither team have provided profit on the run line in the past five games. The Astros are 2-3 on -1.5 on the run line in the past five, but there wasn't much value in taking the Astros -1.5 in the past two games against the White Sox, so take that with a grain of salt. Previously, Houston snagged a pair of wins over the Rays by one run in each. When the Red Sox lose, it's typically not a close loss. 10 of their past 11 losses came by more than one run. I could see value in grabbing the Astros -1.5 at plus money based on the Red Sox recent trends in losses.
Over/Under
The Astros are 4-1 in favor of the under in their past five, while the Red Sox are 3-2 to the under. I'll also go on the under here at 8.5 runs. It could be a pretty low scoring game since the Red Sox aren't great versus lefties and the Astros offense can be shaky at times.
