On the surface, you wouldn’t think of Red Sox vs Royals as a big-time series, but this three-game set at Kauffman Stadium could have a crucial impact on the American League wild-card race.
The Royals are 63-50 and hold the third and final wild-card spot in the AL entering Monday; they've won six of their last seven games. Just behind them at 59-51 are the Red Sox. They're 2 1/2 games back for the final wild-card spot but are just 6-9 since the All-Star break.
Our Action Network staff always looks to fade pitchers due for negative regression, but what happens when they both are? In this case, we're talking about James Paxton for the Red Sox and Brady Singer for the Royals.
Check out my Red Sox vs Royals prediction and Monday pick.
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 10 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -175 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 10 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +145 |
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP James Paxton (BOS) | Stat | RHP Brady Singer (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-3 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 4.52/4.83 | ERA /xERA | 2.88/4.45 |
| 4.96/5.29 | FIP / xFIP | 3.73/3.62 |
| 1.46 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 4.9% | K-BB% | 15.3% |
| 36.0% | GB% | 49.1$ |
| 73 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 97 | Location+ | 101 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction & Preview
Red Sox Betting Preview: James Paxton Over the Hill
James Paxton had been the poster boy for negative regression during the first half of the season before it hit him like a ton of bricks and the Dodgers designated him for assignment. He was eventually traded back to Boston, where he pitched last season.
Over 19 starts this season, Paxton has an 8-3 record but a 4.52 ERA. Things have been much worse for him lately. He started the year with a 3.29 ERA — with opponents having a .318 wOBA against him through his first 10 starts — but since then, he's ballooned up to a 6.05 ERA over his last nine starts, allowing a .337 wOBA against.
Paxton’s Baseball Savant page is entirely blue. He ranks in the bottom 20% in nearly every statistical category. Paxton doesn’t strikeout batters; he has a walk rate of 12% and allows a ton of hard contact.
The Boston offense ranks second in the league in wOBA this season, thanks in part to an MVP-caliber campaign from outfield Jarren Duran. He's batting .296 with a .365 wOBA and ranks seventh in WAR.
Royals Betting Preview: Bobby Witt Jr.'s MVP Push
While the regression train ran over Paxton a few months ago, Brady Singer has somehow managed to avoid it — as has the entire Royals pitching staff.
Kansas City has four of the 15 best ERAs in the American League. Singer ranks fourth in the AL with a 2.88 ERA, but has he really been that good? Singer has a 3.74 FIP and a 4.45 xERA on the season.
Singer ranks in the bottom 30% of the league in xERA and xBA and the bottom 50% of the league in strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He mostly relies on just three pitches — his slider, sinker and fastball.
His slider and sinker account for over 80% of his pitch mix. Both pitches have a much lower wOBA than xwOBA, which indicates he's gotten a bit lucky. His sinker especially is allowing a ton of hard contact and not missing any bats.
Kansas City has been powered by an MVP-caliber season of its own in Bobby Witt Jr. The All-Star shortstop leads the league in WAR and batting average. He's been hitting .437 over the last month.
He's helped the Royals rank 12th in wOBA this season.
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Analysis
Both of these pitchers have massive concerns. But despite the wide disparity in the results, their profiles aren't all that dissimilar. Singer sports a 4.45 xERA compared to Paxton’s 4.83 mark.
Singer has allowed an 8.1% barrel rate and has a .263 xBA against. Paxton has an 8.2% barrel rate and a .259 xBA allowed. Will the expected metrics finally catch up to Singer? Because if they do, these pitchers aren't all that far apart.
However, at the plate, the Red Sox have an advantage over everybody in the league right now. Boston has been mashing the ball. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox lead the league in wOBA and wRC+ by a wide margin.
They've blown the rest of the league away with a .376 wOBA since the start of July. Against right-handed pitchers, that number grows to a ridiculous .390 wOBA with a 149 wRC+.
Six players on the Red Sox have an OPS above 1.000 over the last two weeks, and their two best hitters are left-handed bats who smash right-handed pitching. Duran and Rafael Devers each have a wRC+ above 150 against righties this season. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani hit RHP better than Devers.
Boston should have a bigger advantage at the plate than Kansas City has on the mound with Singer. Not to mention, the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in the league, tilting the advantage back to Boston in the later innings.
Prediction: This game is more of a coin flip than the price indicates, so I’ll take the Red Sox as the underdog in this spot.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+120 or Better)
Moneyline
Boston was available as high as +136 last night but has been bet down this morning. Despite 80% of the bets coming in on Kansas City, the sharp action has been on Boston, causing the number to drop.
Run Line (Spread)
Boston has gone 30-24 on the spread as an underdog this season. Given the pop it has in its lineup, it should have enough to keep this close, even if Paxton implodes. However, I prefer the upside on the Red Sox winning the game outright.
Over/Under
The total has gone over in 27 of Royals' 58 last games at home. Both teams have been hitting the ball well, and both pitchers are capable of blow up outings that get out of hand quickly. I liked this over when it opened at 9.5. However, at 10, it's a pass for me.
