The New York Mets (73-64) return home following a successful 7-3 road trip as they host the Boston Red Sox (70-67) at Citi Field on Monday night. Opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network for out-of-market viewers and also NESN and SNY.
Both the Mets and Red Sox are the first team out in the wild-card race in their respective league heading into Labor Day, although New York sits only one game behind the Atlanta Braves for the third NL wild-card spot. Boston, however, is 4 1/2 games back of the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins for one of the final two AL wild-card spots.
Let's get into my preview for this MLB Labor Day interleague series opener, which includes my Red Sox vs Mets prediction and moneyline pick for Monday, September 2.
Red Sox-Mets Predictions
- Red Sox-Mets pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+110)
My Red Sox-Mets best bet is on the Red Sox moneyline, where I see value at +110 (at the time of writing). The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Mets Odds
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -210 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +175 |
- Red Sox-Mets Moneyline: Red Sox +100 | Mets -120
- Red Sox-Mets Total: Over/Under 8 runs (-105o / -115u)
- Red Sox-Mets Spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+175)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Red Sox at Mets Series Opener
| RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | RHP Luis Severino (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 9-6 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 4.66/4.35 | ERA /xERA | 3.96/4.03 |
| 4.38/3.76 | FIP / xFIP | 4.32/4.22 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 51.9% | GB% | 46.9% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Preview
Red Sox Betting Preview: Brayan Bello On Heater
The Red Sox captured a pair of victories at Houston on August 20 and 21, but Boston has gone backwards since then by dropping seven of the past 10 games. Getting swept at home by Arizona was a gut-punch last weekend, while the Sox lost the final two games of this past weekend series at surging Detroit to fall to 70-67.
If the Sox can stay away from Fenway Park for a while, maybe they can turn things around. In spite of the two losses in the Motor City the last two days, Boston has posted a solid 39-29 road mark, compared to a 31-38 home record.
The offense needs to wake up from this current slumber in which Boston was limited to two runs in the last two defeats, while three of the seven runs scored in Friday's win came in extra innings.
Brayan Bello heads to the mound for the Sox as the right-hander is coming off his best start of the season. Bello delivered eight scoreless innings, while striking out nine batters and allowing two hits in a 3-0 home victory over Toronto.
Bello has given up one run or less in three of the past four trips to the mound, as the Red Sox improved to 9-2 in his last 11 starts.
Boston owns a 6-2 record in Bello's past eight road outings as the two losses came in an 11-inning setback to the Dodgers and a shocking 6-1 defeat to the White Sox in June as a hefty -220 favorite.
Mets Betting Preview: Sprinting to the Finish Line
The Mets are feeling good with the calendar turning to September, capping off a three-game sweep of the historically bad White Sox and a 7-3 road swing.
Yes, New York had to grab those three wins in Chicago this weekend, but the Mets also took two of three at Arizona and split a four-game set at San Diego, two teams ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card race.
The Mets have not lost a series in their last five tries, with the most recent series defeat coming at home to the surprising Athletics in mid-August. In fact, New York has captured five consecutive series openers, while not allowing more than three runs in any of those wins.
Luis Severino has found a home with the Mets following a roller-coaster run with the Yankees for eight seasons. Severino seeks his 10th victory as he came up short in his last outing at Arizona by getting lifted in the fifth inning of an 8-5 defeat.
Severino overcame taking a line drive off his right ankle to stay in the game, but reached the 100-pitch mark for the second time in his past 11 starts and still managed nine strikeouts.
Since the All-Star break, Severino is 7-1 to the Over on his strikeout props as he is listed at 6.5 strikeouts tonight, heavily juiced to the Under. Opposing starting pitchers are 16-5 to the Over on K props facing Boston since August 10, including 10 instances of seven strikeouts or more.
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis: Boston Moneyline
The Red Sox are heading to Citi Field for the first time since 2021 as Boston has won eight of the last nine matchups from New York since 2020. Granted, Bello has never faced the Mets and Severino lost to the Red Sox last season as a member of the Yankees.
The first game back from a long road trip is always tough, even if the Mets had three games this past weekend against the now 31-107 White Sox. Boston has been better on the road this season and it keeps winning behind Bello, so let's ride the Red Sox as short road underdogs.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+110)
Moneyline
The Red Sox picked up 10 hits in the last two losses at Detroit, which included facing American League Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal on Saturday. Severino has not pitched past the sixth inning in six of the last seven starts so if the Red Sox can make the New York right-hander labor, then this could be the night Boston bounces back.
Run Line (Spread)
Six of the last seven losses for the Red Sox have come by two runs or more so if you decide to back the Mets, mine as well take a shot at them -1.5. Also, six of New York's past seven victories are by at least two runs.
Over/Under
The Red Sox are on a 5-1 Under run the last six games but have cashed the Over in four of Bello's past five road starts. The Mets are 4-1 to the Under in their past five games at Citi Field and 3-1 to the Under in Severino's previous four home outings.
Red Sox vs Mets Betting Trends
- 75% of the bets and 51% of the money are on the Mets on the moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the over.
- 63% of the bets and 53% of the money are on the Mets to cover the run line.
Red Sox Betting Trends
- The Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- The Red Sox are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The Red Sox are 38-30 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games.
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The totals have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games.
- The totals have gone Under in 34 of their last 68 home games.
Red Sox-Mets Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Citi Field |
| Date: | Monday, September 2, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | MLB Network (out of market); NESN; SNY |
Red Sox at Mets is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. The game can be watched on MLB Network, SNY or NESN.
Red Sox-Mets Weather Forecast Monday
