The Boston Red Sox (74-74) and New York Yankees (86-62) play the third game of their four-game set on Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on MLB Network, YES and NESN.
The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series and hand the ball to Gerrit Cole on Saturday as they attempt to notch the series win — and as an added bonus, potentially further dim the playoff hopes of the rival Red Sox, who are 4 1/2 games out of the third AL wild-card spot. Cole will be opposed by Brayan Bello, who's turned in some iffy outings in September.
Below, you can find out where I think the betting value lies with my Red Sox vs Yankees prediction for Saturday, September 14.
Red Sox at Yankees Predictions
- Red Sox-Yankees picks: Under 8.5 to 8 (-115)
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet for Saturday is on the under, where I see value at 8.5. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +155 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -185 |
- Red Sox-Yankees Moneyline: Red Sox +155 | Yankees -185
- Red Sox-Yankees Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-115o / -105u)
- Red Sox-Yankees Spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-130) | Yankees -1.5 (+110)
Red Sox at Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers for Saturday
| RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-7 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.70/4.45 | ERA /xERA | 3.36/3.74 |
| 4.33/3.86 | FIP / xFIP | 3.89/3.84 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 12.8% | K-BB% | 19.3% |
| 51.7% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 100 | Location+ | 101 |
D.J. James’ Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Lots of Grounders
Bello has a 4.70 ERA and 4.45 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 89 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 29th percentile. However, his ground-ball rate is well over 50% and ranks in the 88th percentile. He does tend to issue walks and does not manufacture many swings and misses. The key here is that his ground-ball rate should do the bulk of the work. The Yankees rank in the top three in ground-ball rate in the last month, so this plays into Bello’s usual edge.
The Red Sox have a 92 wRC+, 7.3% walk rate, and 25.2% strikeout rate against righties. They only have four bats above a .325 xwOBA, so the bottom of the lineup has not pulled their weight as much as they should have. Cole has been too strong to yield any ground in the order.
The Red Sox relief staff has a 4.15 xFIP in the last month. They have a 20% strikeout rate and a walk rate under 8%. They have some injuries to reliable relief arms, but they still carry four active relievers under a 4.00 xFIP. This should be enough backup for Bello’s start.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Gerrit Cole Returning to Form
Cole has a 3.36 ERA and 3.74 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is a touch under 90 MPH with a below average Hard-Hit Rate and ground-ball rate, which are inflated because of his first several outings.
In recent appearances, he has been dominant. He has pushed his strikeout rate above 26% with a walk rate under 8%. He has given up three runs one time in seven starts since the beginning of August. He has been below that mark in every other start, keeping opponents to zero runs three times in that stretch.
The Yankees own a 100 wRC+ off of righties in the last month with a 9.4% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate. They do have six bats above a .325 xwOBA, but keeping the ball on the ground will be an issue. A 44.8% ground-ball rate against righties in the last month will not get the job done with Bello facing them.
In relief, the Yanks have a 3.56 xFIP, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate. They have only one active reliever above a 4.00 xFIP, so they have enough artillery if Cole were to need it. He likely won't with how well he has pitched lately.
Red Sox-Yankees Predictions & Betting Analysis
Look for the under in this game to hit. Sure, Bello may only thrive with keeping the ball on the ground, but this is one area the Yankees have particularly had a tough time. The Red Sox do not have a deep enough order to get by Cole easily at this juncture. Both bullpens should be able to pull their own weight as well. Runs will be at a premium in this classic rivalry matchup.
Pick: Under 8.5 to 8 (-115)
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Moneyline
-190 (Pass)
Run Line (Spread)
-1.5 (Pass)
Over/Under
Under 8.5 (Yes)
Red Sox-Yankees Betting Trends
- 88% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the Yankees moneyline.
- 74% of the bets and 78% of the money are on the over (8.5).
- 81% of the bets and 66% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Red Sox Betting Trends
- The Red Sox are 2-3 in their past five games.
- The Red Sox are 3-2 ATS in their past five games.
- The Under has hit in four of Boston's past five games.
- The Red Sox are 39-33 ATS on the road.
- The Red Sox are 32-39 as the underdog.
Yankees Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 3-2 in their past five games.
- The Yankees are 1-4 in their past five games.
- The Under his hit in four of New York's past five games.
- The Yankees are 32-40 ATS at home.
- The Yankees are 55-65 as the favorite.
Red Sox-Yankees Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Yankee Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, September 14, 2024 |
| Time: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | MLB Network (out-of-market viewers) | NESN | YES |
