The Boston Red Sox (74-72) and New York Yankees (73-52) open a four-game series on Thursday night at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX.
Nothing signals fall baseball more than an AL East rivalry series between the Yankees and the Red Sox in September. Another iteration of the the most storied and famous rivalry in sports, arguably the most well known one at the professional level, begins tonight!
There's more at stake than expected in this four-game set, with Boston coming alive after the All-Star break to make a push for a playoff berth. After walking off the Baltimore Orioles (83-64) on Wednesday night, the Red Sox continued their crusade toward the final AL wild-card spot, sitting just four games back with 16 games left to play. Meanwhile, the Yankees are jockeying with the Cleveland Guardians (84-62) for the top seed in the American League. The Yankees must also keep the Orioles at bay — the O's are only 1 1/2 games behind for the AL East lead.
In this storied Thursday affair, Nestor Cortes takess the mound for the Yankees as the Red Sox turn to Cooper Criswell. I preview the series opener below and offer my Red Sox vs Yankees prediction for Thursday, September 12.
Red Sox-Yankees Predictions
- Red Sox-Yankees picks: Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)
My Red Sox-Yankees best bet is on New York to go over its team total of 4.5 runs, where I see value at -120. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+175 | 9 +100o / -120uu | +1.5 -125 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-210 | 9 +100o / -120uu | -1.5 +105 |
- Red Sox-Yankees Moneyline: Red Sox +175 | Yankees -210
- Red Sox-Yankees Over/Under: 9 total runs (+100o / -120u)
- Red Sox-Yankees Spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+105)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Red Sox at Yankees
| RHP Cooper Criswell (BOS) | Stat | LHP Nestor Cortes (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 9-10 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 4.11 / 4.19 | ERA /xERA | 3.97 / 3.69 |
| 4.09 /4.36 | FIP / xFIP | 3.89 / 4.22 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 10.0 | K-BB% | 17.1 |
| 50.9 | GB% | 30.5 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Justin Perri's Red Sox-Yankees Team Previews, Predictions
Red Sox Betting Preview: Tyler O'Neill On Heater
Tyler O'Neill is on what we call a sun-run, he's that hot. Five home runs in five games including last night's walk off to beat Baltimore, their other playoff candidate foe. O'Neill has nine RBIs during the short stretch, and, to put it in context, you'd need to go back 21 games to compile another nine for the outfielder.
The Red Sox will take it. His efforts won the series last night, bringing their series record to 7-4-2 since the All Star break. They've slipped a bit after starting 5-1-1, but are currently on a roll after the big Orioles win and a soft toss series against the White Sox before that.
They give the ball to the Cooper Criswell, who has made four starts since August 21. He was moved to the bullpen in late July but has made his return to the rotation. In these four starts the Red Sox are 3-1 against the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and White Sox. Criswell has a 2.12 ERA and 1.24 whip in that span with a very lucky 94.1% LOB rate. He was only was able to pick up one win, however, as he threw just 17 innings total in the four appearances.
The bigger issue for Criswell today is the 6.0% swinging strike rate he's garnered in that span. He will need to rely on location, framing and beneficial strike zone calls to get hitters out. Against the Yankees, who are usually limited by their strikeout propensity, Criswell could be in for another short outing if too many balls are put in play.
There have been plenty of runs when these teams have met this summer. In their last five matchups the Red Sox and Yankees have gone over the total in four times. The Yankees scored seven or more in all of those four, so maybe look more to the over than the Red Sox to win the series opener in The Bronx.
Yankees Betting Preview: Aaron Judge Slumping Hard
Both teams are coming in to this Thursday night series-opener after winning their prior game in walk-off fashion. The Yankees went into extra innings, tied 2-2 with the Kansas City Royals after Luis Gil dueled Cole Ragans in a great game. Each team traded runs in the 10th, but it was Luke Weaver who earned the big win by striking out the side in the top of the 11th to allow for a small-ball victory for New York in a series clinching win.
The Yankees will look to bring that energy into the rivalry series for the last time this season, as the teams won't meet again after this weekend unless the Sox make a miraculous run into the Wild Card.
New York is 5-5 in September thus far after going 16-12 in August. It's been enough to keep them neck and neck with the Guardians for the best record in the American League, as both Cleveland and Baltimore have struggled in recent weeks.
Aaron Judge is dealing with a bit of a slump in the last two weeks, he's failed to hit a home run in his last 15 games. The last two coming in a single game against Colorado on the last Sunday of August. He's slugging an alarming .259 in that span, which has pushed his season long slugging down 50 points from .736 to .686.
Even with a slumping super star, the Yankees are a dangerous team that still has Juan Soto waiting in the wings. They'll task Nestor Cortes to get it done today. Cortes has been around league average this season in terms of stuff, he is pitching to expectations and what you see is what you get. He sometimes has bad starts, but he does enough to keep a team like New York competitive.
The Yankees are just 12-17 in games Nestor has started, but much of that has to do with a lack of run support rather than bad pitching. Win-loss records can often be misleading in this way. A terrible start can still be awarded a win if the other guy does worse!
Nonetheless, today's Yankees team should compete, as they always do. They are priced as a decently heavy favorite of -165, and when made the favorite in the market have won on the money line in 66 of 118 games, a 55.9% win rate.
Red Sox at Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis: Back New York?
The moneyline here, which is pretty fair to call the most simple measure of the market, has not moved much. There was a brief open around -178 for the Yankees but a steep, quick move to -165 in the early hours of the line's availability has been the only motion to report.
The total has flipped between o8.5 at -120 and the current o9 at +100, with both available at the time of writing depending on which book you use. Totals have gone over at a high rate at Yankee stadium, and both lineups are solid tonight against pitchers that leave a bit to be desired.
My prediction is a higher scoring game, specifically for the New York Yankees. Boston surrendered 26 runs to this team in three games last time they met in July, with each of the three games seeing the bullpen allow 4+ runs after the seventh.
Cooper Criswell will give way to that very same bullpen early today, as he usually does, and the Yankees team total should have value, maybe even some alternate lines as well. There's a good chance New York could score six or seven runs tonight.
Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-120) at DraftKings
Moneyline
The Red Sox have been better away from home this season, they're 39-32 on the road while just 35-40 at Fenway. They do play at a hitter friendly park and have struggled with their starting rotation this year, so losing at home does make sense.
Run Line (Spread)
There has yet to be a game between the Yankees and Red Sox this year that was decided by less than two runs. When these teams play, one team wins decidedly. Now, of course, that's not the biggest sample size with just nine games against each other this season, but there's something to be said for it.
The composite form of players like Judge and Devers trending towards the cold side could certainly mean a different style of game that would land on a tight, one run victory for the favored Yankees, but there's plenty of reason to believe that New York should score today. I'd lean towards their side on the spread.
Over/Under
Yankee Stadium is a friendly run scoring environment, but it's also where Nestor Cortes has done much better in his 2024 campaign. That initial difference makes judging the total, which has flirted with 9 but sits at 8.5 at most books, difficult.
The big factor to me is the exposure of the bullpens, specifically the Red Sox bullpen with Criswell not being known for his outing length in games. The Yankees have a different type of bullpen issue where they went into the 11th inning yesterday and now will likely look to extend Nestor as deep as possible today.
There's a likelyhood that the Yankees, if leading by a serious amount, would allow for Nestor to struggle a bit late if it meant an extra inning of rest. Too many signs, for me, point to the over today. Ideally grab the O9 for +100 rather than buying the win condition at 8.5 for -120.
Red Sox vs Yankees Betting Trends
- 86% of the bets and 83% of the money are on the Yankees moneyline.
- 98% of the bets and 99% of the money are on the over.
- 93% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line (-1.5).
Red Sox Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Red Sox are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Red Sox are 38-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
Yankees Betting Trends
- Yankees are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Yankees' 71 last games at home
Red Sox-Yankees Key Injuries
Red Sox Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Brennan Bernardino | Left elbow inflammation (15-day IL) |
| RHP Lucas Sims | Right lat strain (15-day IL) |
| INF David Hamilton | Left index finger fracture (10-day IL) |
| RHP Liam Hendriks | UCL Surgery (60-day IL) |
Yankees Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| INF DJ LeMahieu | Right hip impingement (10-day IL) |
