The Boston Red Sox (16-14) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (13-15) on Tuesday, April 29, to kick off a 3-game series. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Red Sox are vying for first place in the AL East, sitting just 1.5 games back from first place. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are trying to avoid the basement.
Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's odds to make our best bets. The Red Sox are -145 moneyline favorites, while the Blue Jays are +118 moneyline underdogs. The over/under is set at 7.5 total runs.
Find my Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds, expert picks, and predictions below.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Projected Starters
| LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) | Stat | RHP Bowden Francis (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 1.95/3.08 | ERA /xERA | 3.58/6.27 |
| 2.24/3.13 | FIP / xFIP | 5.47/4.17 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 19.6% | K-BB% | 11.5% |
| 47.1% | GB% | 40.5% |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 90 | Location+ | 105 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -120 / +100 | -145 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7.5 -120 / +100 | +118 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+125, BetMGM | Play to +100)
My Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet is on Boston to cover the spread (run line). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the Moneyline.
Run Line/Against the Spread
As mentioned above, go with Red Sox to cover the Spread (-1.5)
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from game totals.
Sean Paul’s Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Red Sox Betting Preview
Garrett Crochet is off to an interesting start to his Boston career. Prior to Crochet’s last outing against the Mariners, where he surrendered five runs, he hadn’t had a single bad outing as a Red Sox.
Crochet has a very strange profile. He enters with a stout 1.95 ERA and 2.24 FIP, but his 3.08 xERA and 3.13 xFIP aren’t as eye-popping.
Is it bad? No, but Crochet isn’t putting together a prime Clayton Kershaw-esque season.
We’ve also seen the Red Sox fully unleash Crochet, so it’ll be interesting to see how the left-hander responds to his first year with a full starter load.
Still, Crochet is pitching incredibly well. All he needs to do is chop down his BB/9 that ballooned from 2.03 to 3.65. He's done an excellent job limiting the homers, cutting them from 1.11 per nine to 0.24. He'll allow more homers, but I can't see his HR/9 jumping to over 1.00 again.
The Red Sox lineup is among the more fearsome in the American League. They boast a 111 wRC+ since April 10th while posting a pristine 10% walk rate with a .178 isolated power and 22 homers. The mixture of plate patience and power makes this offense a real problem for pitchers.
Since joining Boston, Alex Bregman has turned a new leaf, posting a 198 wRC+ since April 10th with five homers this year. His infield mate, Trevor Story is healthy and finally showing why the Red Sox handed him a hefty contract. He started slow again, but he has a 120 wRC+ with three homers in that same span.
Blue Jays Betting Preview
If you want to discuss regression, look no further than Toronto's Bowden Francis.
On the surface, Francis's entering with a 3.58 ERA isn't bad for a back-end rotation arm. Then you take a peek at his 6.27 xERA and 5.47 FIP and the questions start to come around.
Francis has an ugly Statcast page, as well. He ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in xERA (8th), xBA (9th), chase rate (14th), whiff rate (20th), barrel% (16th), and hard-hit rate (24th). That's a majority of the important percentile stats that Francis ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in.
The Blue Jays' offense is a total mess. They rank 26th in MLB with an 84 wRC+ since April 10th.
The only everyday starter with an above-average wRC+ in that time is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 137, which is pretty low for his lofty standards. If you expand the data to the full season, George Springer is the best Blue Jays hitter (166 wRC+).
Four of the top hitters in Toronto's lineup just haven't hit.
Bo Bichette is setting the table well, hitting .292, but he's morphed into a slap hitter with a dreadful .067 ISO.
Anthony Santander was supposed to fill a power void next to Guerrero, but he has just three homers and is hitting .197.
Alejandro Kirk also has just one homer and a terrible ISO and Andres Gimenez is hitting .176. Every single non-Guerrero hitter in the Jays lineup features a glaring flaw.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction
I think the line is about right from a moneyline perspective.
The Red Sox are -155 favorites (at the time of writing) and should be. It might be a little lower than I expected, but I don't want to play a -155 ML.
So, I'll pivot and grab plus money on the Red Sox run line. Everything in this matchup points to a Boston laugher.
Crochet should dominate what's been a terrible Jays lineup and Francis will have arguably his toughest test of the year awaiting him.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+125, BetMGM | Play to +100)
