The Los Angeles Angels kicked off their three-game series last night in Anaheim with a victory over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves entered Anaheim, Red Hot offensively, but their bats were stalled the previous night.
Tonight, the Braves will try to turn things around as National League Cy Young award contender, Chris Sale, is on the mound. He’ll be opposed by Griffin Canning, someone I will be targeting in an SGP Parlay.
I compiled 3-legs for the SGP, which pays roughly +650 over at FanDuel. Here are the three legs:
John Feltman's Braves vs Angels MLB Parlay Picks
- Griffin Canning Over 4.5 Strikeouts -138
- Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases -115
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 Alt Run Line F5 Innings +132
Parlay Odds: +642 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Griffin Canning Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Canning pitched seven strong innings in his last start but stunningly did not record a strikeout, only generating seven swings and misses. Tonight, he draws a good matchup against the Braves in the strikeout department, who rank in the bottom five in punchouts per game. Canning is not a dominant starter by any means, but he can strike out hitters when he needs to.
I'm not going to panic over his last start. And on paper, it might seem like a tough matchup to bounce back. But, although his metrics are ugly, Canning is still generating a decent amount of chases on his pitches.
Canning might get roughed up a bit tonight, but he should especially take advantage of the lower part of the Braves lineup in the strikeout department. Canning should generate at least five Ks.
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Ozuna has been an absolute menace to opposing starting pitchers, and he draws a terrific matchup tonight against Canning. Ozuna ranks above the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xWOBA and xBA.
If that isn't enough, Ozuna has crushed fastballs and changeups all season. Canning throws either a fastball or changeup approximately 63% of the time. Ozuna has demolished those pitches and has a hard-hit rate above 50% on both offerings. He should get at least one extra-base hit tonight.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 Alt Run Line F5 Innings (+132)
The Brave are currently -145 to win the F5 -0.5, but I like their chances of making it ugly early.
With Chris Sale on the mound, there is a clear pitching advantage for the Braves. Sale should tear through the Angels lineup, and I expect the Braves offense to take advantage of these ugly metrics by Canning. They may strike out a decent amount, but I do not expect that to slow down their offense as a whole.
Canning ranks below the 40th percentile in average exit velocity, xERA, xBA, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
The Braves only scored two runs on Friday night, so I expect them to take advantage of a plus-pitching matchup and go off against Canning. Instead of relying on the Angels offense to contribute to the total, this is a good opportunity to take advantage of a plus-money alternate line.
