Jorge Soler hit a leadoff home run and the Atlanta Braves never looked back in a surprising, 6-2 victory in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night in Houston.
The Astros are favored to even things up at home with Jose Urquidy on the mound against Max Fried. The total has been set at 8.5.
Our analysts have found three ways to attack these lines, with a play on a team total, a first five innings wager, and a full-game total.
Here are our three best bets for World Series Game 2 between the Braves and Astros.
Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (+125)
Odds via BetMGM
Collin Whitchurch: Max Fried was electric in the second half of the season, sporting a 1.46 ERA from August 1 on, and he finished the year with a solid 3.45 xFIP to go along with his 3.04 ERA.
The Braves would be in the driver's seat to win the World Series with a Game 2 victory, but if they're going to do it, they're very likely going to need to win a slugfest, because as good as Fried has been, the Astros' offense is a terrible matchup for him.
Houston had the best offense in baseball all season long, but it's particularly dangerous against southpaws. The Astros sported a 117 wRC+ against lefties this season, and have a number of hitters who also do a lot of damage against curveballs — Fried's favorite secondary pitch — including Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez.
Houston has three important lefties in its lineup, but only one — Michael Brantley — truly struggles against southpaws, as both Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have proven more than adept at hitting same-handed hurlers.
Houston's team total is the best way to attack this edge. You can get the team total over 4.5 at +125 at BetMGM, and I would bet it down to +115.
Braves First Five Innings -105
Odds via FanDuel
Michael Arinze: Given that I have an Astros World Series future in my portfolio, I was extremely nervous when I saw their opponent would be the Atlanta Braves.
Unlike most teams that reached the playoffs, the Braves came into the postseason with its starting rotation in tact. That won't be tested until later in the series as Atlanta will need to make some adjustments after losing Charlie Morton for the rest of the season due to injury.
However, the Braves still have Max Fried set to pitch Game 2, and this will be the first time that most of the Astros hitters will step in the batter's box against him. Only Marwin González has faced him in the past.
Houston will counter with José Urquidy, who will be making just his second start this postseason. His first appearance didn't go so well as he failed to make it out of the second inning in the ALCS against the Red Sox. Urquidy allowed six runs (five earned) on five hits in 1 2/3 innings.
In contrast, Fried pitched more regularly this postseason with three starts under his belt. I know the Braves left-hander got hit around a bit in his last outing when he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings, but he had a stretch of 14 straight quality outings before that.
The Braves certainly have the edge in starting pitching, and my projections have this game as a coin flip at best. With such slim margins, the better defensive teams also will have the advantage.
Atlanta's made only two errors this postseason compared to seven by the Astros. While it wouldn't surprise me if the Astros' bats get going later in the game, but I think Atlanta offers value in the first five innings on the money line with the better pitcher on the mound.
FanDuel hast the best price with the Braves at -105 and I'd play them up to -110.
Over 8.5 (-115)
Odds via DraftKings
Kenny Ducey: You’ll notice a trend with all of my best bets this World Series; I don’t think I will be backing the Astros’ pitching staff. This collection of starters in particular is very weak, it’s like starting Rex Grossman at quarterback in the Super Bowl and expecting everything to go fine.
Behind these hurlers are a collection of bullpen arms who have been surprisingly good this October, but were very bad all year long and could easily fall back into oblivion if overworked.
I’m also not ignorant to the fact that the Astros are not only good, but have destroyed lefties all year long, ranking atop the league in wRC+ in that split. At home, with their backs getting closer to the wall, I think Houston should get on the board against Max Fried, who did not look very good the last time we saw him pitch against the Dodgers. Houston ranks ninth in weighted runs per 100 curveballs this year, further strengthening this matchup.
Jose Urquidy is not very good either. He was OK this season in 20 starts, but wasn’t good enough to make it into the Astros’ initial postseason rotation. When they finally elevated him in wake of the Lance McCullers Jr. injury, he surrendered five earned runs in just 1 ⅔ innings. While many pointed to his long 15-day layoff between starts as a potential reason he wasn’t sharp, this outing will come on nine days of rest.
Urquidy is a fly ball pitcher throwing at a hitter’s park against a Braves team that has not only destroyed right-handed pitching, but ranks second in home run-to-fly ball ratio. This isn’t a great spot.
Put it all together and I think you get great conditions for scoring runs.
