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Throughout the MLB postseason, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games.
I will also address betting these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis while using my daily MLB Model projections.
Let's talk series prices and World Series prop bets before digging into Game 2 between the Astros and Braves.
Series Moneyline Corner
Here are my updated ML projections for the 2021 World Series:
Before the World Series, I projected the Braves as 45% underdogs against the Astros.I would have decreased their chances to 41% without Charlie Morton.
While Atlanta's chances should have increased to 62% following their Game 1 win, losing Morton in the process decreases their remaining series projection by two percent.
The difference would occur in Game 5, where I would have projected Morton and the Braves as 52.4% favorites at home against Framber Valdez and the Astros. I'm assuming that Kyle Wright (career 5.73 xFIP) will take Morton's innings, and I would set the Astros as 53.8% favorites in that potentially pivotal matchup — an increase of 6.2%.
As a result, the Astros should be the favorite in five out of the seven games in the World Series — but they still have an uphill battle to climb, now needing four wins in their final six games.
Before Game 2, I would need -138 (58% implied) to bet Atlanta at a two percent edge compared to my projection. Conversely, I would need +163 (38% implied) to bet Houston at a comparative advantage.
As a refresher, here's how my World Series projections have evolved throughout the season:
World Series Props
In addition to the series ML, or the ML and totals for the individual games, there are numerous ways to bet the World Series from an exotic or prop perspective.
Two of the most popular prop markets are the total number of games and the exact series outcome.
I'll update my projections for those two prop markets after each game of this series:
Braves at Astros, Game 2
8:09 p.m. ET
Houston's offense will hope to get back on track in Game 2 against lefty Max Fried (3.49 xERA, 3.45 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA, 17.5% K-BB%), who has pitched well this postseason (17 K, 2 BB in 16 2/3 IP) on the heels of a dominant second half (1.74 ERA).
The Astros have ranked as the top offense against southpaws (per wRC+) in four of five seasons dating back to 2017, and with multiple key lefty relievers (Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter, Will Smith) sitting in that Atlanta bullpen, this looks like a prime matchup to take advantage.
However, Minter is likely unavailable for Game 2 after tossing more than 40 pitches on Tuesday.
Among Houston's three left-handed bats, only Michael Brantley (59 wRC+ in 2021) struggles against southpaws.
Fried showed reverse splits in 2021 (.269 wOBA vs. RHP; .304 vs. LHP), but his career numbers (.299, .301) are a dead heat. Since last season, he has kept the same pitch mix: throwing one sinker for every four-seam fastballs while mixing in a pair of breaking balls close to 50% of the time.
He prefers to attack righties with curveballs (28%) and four-seamers (40%), but increases his usage of sinkers (18%) and sliders (27%) against lefties.
Those sinkers could backfire against Brantley and Yordan Alvarez, both of whom ranked in the upper quartile among a group of 500+ batters against the pitch type.
Alvarez was also a 90th percentile hitter against sliders. And considering his ability to hit same-sided pitching (career 153 wrC+ against righties and lefties), Alvarez's total bases prop is an intriguing bet for Game 2.
Yuli Gurriel is always worth a look from an offensive standpoint. He hits righties and lefties equally well, regularly puts the ball in play and has an above-average pitch value against every type of offering except for splitters. Gurriel tied for third in run value against sliders (+11) this season.
Jose Altuve remains on my short list as well, with solid splits against lefties (career 141 wrC+, 21 points higher than vs. RHP), and excellent production against four-seam fastballs (97th percentile), while ranking in the top 25% against both curveballs and sliders too.
José Urquidy (3.87 xERA, 4.38 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA, 16.8% K-BB%) is a solid pitcher with experience in October. However, the righty has only pitched once since October 3rd, when he was shelled in Game 3 by the Red Sox (1 2/3 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 1 K). And he made two trips to the IL this season with shoulder discomfort.
When Urquidy is right, he offers elite command (4.5% walk rate, 96th percentile) with a higher zone rate (50%) than any qualified starter. And he has a hidden talent in generating popups (16.4%, third among starters).
He's not just smoke and mirrors with command, either. On the 20/80 scouting scale, Urquidy has four pitches that rate as average or better at the MLB level, and each has returned a positive pitch value at one point during his short career.
The four-seam fastball (career 53% usage) is his primary weapon, and on a per-pitch basis, it ranked as the 17th-best heater amongst 129 qualified starters this season.
Before Game 1, I mentioned Atlanta's struggles against the fastball this season and particularly after revamping their lineup at the trade deadline (21st on a per-pitch basis).
Freddie Freeman (+11 Run-Value vs. Four-Seamers) was Atlanta's best hitter against righties this season (148 wRC+), which aligns with his career mark (150). He ranked in the 99th percentileagainst sliders, 98th percentile against curveballs, 95th percentile against fastballs, and 79th percentile against changeups this season.
Austin Riley has also excelled against all four pitch types and had superior numbers against righties (116 wRC+) instead of lefties.
Eddie Rosario is a righty killer (career 112 wRC+, vs. 86 wRC+ vs. lefties) and excels against both types of breaking balls, but has difficulty with changeups. Additionally, his odds remain overinflated after a red-hot NLCs.
From a prop perspective, Freeman and Riley are the Braves that you would want for Game 2.
Ultimately, I don't see much of a difference in my odds projection between Game 1 and Game 2 — though I do show a slightly higher total:
I jumped in on Houston early, and I would bet the Astros' ML to -112 (52.9% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my project.
Conversely, I would have needed +132 to show actionable value on Atlanta.
I would set the same price targets concerning the First Five innings (F5): 112 on Houston and +132 on Atlanta.
An Over 8.5 (to +105) or an Under 9 (to -104) would require my attention.
As for the F5 total, I would set the targets at -120 for either Over 4 or Under 5.
Summary
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The Bets
- Houston ML (bet to -112)
- Houston F5 ML (bet to -112)
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
- Freddie Freeman, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Yuli Gurriel, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
- Austin Riley, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Watching
Game 2 Sides and Totals
- Over 8.5 (to +105) or Under 9 (to -104)
- F5 over 4 (to -120) or F5 Under 5 (to -120)
Game 2 Props
- Jose Altuve, Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Series Props
- Atlanta — Series ML (value to -138)
- Houston — Series ML (value to +163)
