Braves vs. Astros World Series Odds & Picks: Game 6 Model Edge, Projections

Throughout the MLB postseason, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games.

I will also address betting these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis while using my daily MLB Model projections.

Let's talk series prices and World Series prop bets before digging into Game 6 between the Astros and Braves.

Series Moneyline Corner

Here are my updated ML projections for the 2021 World Series:

Houston improved its chances by 16% following a come-from-behind win over Atlanta on Sunday night.

I would need -186 (65% implied) to bet Atlanta before Game 6 at a two percent edge compared to my projection. Conversely, I would need +223 (31% implied) or better to back Houston.

If you're sitting on a Houston World Series future, you might be tempted to hedge out of your position entirely and secure whatever profits you can.

However, hedging a 1 unit Houston future at odds of +2500, at current odds of -220 on Atlanta, would only net you a profit of 7.13 units at this point.

That +2500 ticket (3.9% implied) is still valuable in the context of the current series — with a 29.1% advantage compared to the series projection. You have ridden it this far, and there's no sense — from a long-term perspective — in burning what's left.

As a refresher, here's how my World Series projections have evolved throughout the season:

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Astros at Braves, Game 6

Tuesday, 8:09 p.m. ET

After deploying Game 2 starter José Urquidy in relief in Game 5, Dusty Baker will turn to AL Rookie of the Year contender Luis Garcia (3.98 xERA, 3.93 xFIP, 3.91 SIERA) on short rest to force a Game 7.

Garcia allowed six runs in his final regular-season start, five in his ALDS start against Chicago, and five more in his Game 2 ALCS matchup against Boston, when he left early with knee soreness. However, Garcia made a mechanical tweak before Game 6 against Boston and threw harder than he had all season (peaked 97.8 mph, 1.6 mph above his previous three outings; averaged 2.7 mph above season-long average).

In Game 3 against Atlanta, Garcia was effective despite subpar command (3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 6 K) and matched his peak velocity figure (97.8 mph) from his previous start.

The righty throws his fastball or cutter more than 2/3 of the time (67.2%) combined, and that is the one way to neutralize Atlanta's offense, which ranked 21st against fastballs and 27th against cutters (on a per-pitch basis) after revamping its offense at the trade deadline.

He increased that combined fastball/cutter usage rate to 87% against Boston in Game 6 (from 70% in Game 2) and dialed it to the same degree against Atlanta (39 fastballs, 20 cutters, 84% combined).

Garcia posted an elite 42% called strike plus whiff rate in Game 3, with 15 of his 16 whiffs by way of the fastball or cutter. Per Inside Edge, opponents have swung at 20 of Garcia's cutters this postseason and whiffed on 17 of those swings:

Garcia has the appropriate pitch mix to stifle this Atlanta offense, and without the worry of a pinch-hitting situation in an AL park, I'm happy to target his strikeout total Over 3.5 (-165), despite limited rest.

He should be able to turn over the Atlanta lineup twice (18 batters faced). Between his strikeout rate (26.4%) and Atlanta's K% against righties (24% after the trade deadline), Garcia would have a rough projection of 4.3 to 4.75 strikeouts.

Freddie Freeman (+21 Run Value against fastballs) and Austin Riley (+14) may offer some resistance against the heater. But Jorge Soler (+6) and Joc Pederson (+3) are the only current Braves hitters who have a positive return against cutters.

Soler went 1-for-5 in Game 5, but he hit a couple of massive foul balls that just missed the foul pole and has generally hit the ball hard in the playoffs (with a 38 HR pace after the trade to Atlanta).

Freeman (+11) and Riley (+6) are excellent against sliders, in addition to fastballs, and we could see an appearance from Cristian Javier (59.4% fastball, 26.8% slider) behind Garcia.

Freeman Over 1.5 (+110), Riley Over 1.5 (+140), and Soler Over 1.5 (+165) would be my player prop targets from Atlanta.

Max Fried (3.49 xERA, 3.45 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA) will hope to push the Braves across the finish line after a rough start to his Game 2 appearance (5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 6 K). The southpaw should have had better results (33% CSW%) while utilizing a breaking ball-heavy game plan against the Astros' offense (30% slider, 30% curveball, 21% four-seam fastball, 10% sinker); 12.5% above his 2021 usage.

Typically, Fried prefers to attack righties with curveballs (28%) and four-seamers (40%) but increases his usage of sinkers (18%) and sliders (27%) against lefties.

Fried generated 13 whiffs (on 27 pitches) with the breaking balls in Game 2 – but he also allowed runs to score against the curveball,  slider, and changeup.

Even at their best, left-handed pitchers struggle to hold down the Astros offense.

The Astros have ranked as the top offense against southpaws (per wRC+) in four of five seasons dating back to 2017. And among Houston's three left-handed bats, only Michael Brantley (59 wRC+ in 2021) struggles against same-side pitching.

I would target the same three Houston bats I targeted in Game 2.

• Jose Altuve, who owns lefties (career 141 wRC+, compared to 120 against righties), destroys fastballs (97th percentile) and crushes curveballs and sliders too (top 25% against both pitch types.
• Yordan Alvarez, who ranked in the top 25% against sinkers, top 10% against sliders, and hits lefties and righties equally (career 153 wrC+ against both types).
• Yuli Gurriel, who hits righties, lefties and all pitch types well and was a standout against sliders (+11 Run Value, third in MLB) this season.

I projected Houston as a solid home favorite in the final two games (if necessary) in the 2021 World Series:

I would need -109 (52.1% implied) or better to bet the Houston ML for Game 6 of the World Series, and I would need -108 (52% implied) to bet their ML for the First Five Innings (F5).

Conversely, I would need +128 (43.9% implied) to bet the Atlanta ML or +127 to bet their F5 ML.

Concerning the total, I would consider the Under 9 (at -110) or an F5 Under 5 (to -115).

Summary

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The Bets

• Jose Altuve, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
• Luis Garcia, Over 4 Strikeouts (bet to +100)
• Jorge Soler Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
• Yuli Gurriel, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)

Watching

Game 6 Sides and Totals

• Atlanta ML (wait for +128)
• Atlanta F5 ML (wait for +127)
• Houston ML (wait for -109)
• Houston F5 ML (wait for -108)
• Under 9 (wait for -110)
• F5 Under 5 (wait for -115)

Game 6 Props

• Yordan Alvarez, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
• Freddie Freeman Over Total Bases 1.5 (+110)
• Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)

Series Props

• Atlanta — Series ML (value to -186)
• Houston — Series ML (value to +223)

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