Looking for Game 4 odds and picks? Click here.
Braves vs. Astros Odds
| Braves Odds | +100 |
| Astros Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 8:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Tuesday night was a tremendous night for the Braves, who picked up a 6-2 win in Game 1. It was their first World Series game since 1999, and first World Series game win since 1996.
However, the night was dampened a bit by the loss of starter Charlie Morton to a fractured fibula in the third inning. He is done for the rest of the series, which is a huge loss for Atlanta.
The Braves were around +130 to win the World Series entering Game 1. They are now listed at -145 heading into Game 2 but are once again underdogs here. Can Atlanta keep things going and go up 2-0 on the road, or will Houston even the series before heading to A-Town?
Braves Need Second-Half Fried To Show Up
Atlanta will send Max Fried (LHP) to the mound. The 27-year-old struggled through the first half of the season but was nails down the stretch to help Atlanta capture the NL East. Fried went 7-7 and held a 4.32 ERA through the end of July. After August 1, Fried went 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his final 11 starts of the year.
With the Braves now likely forced to maneuver through two bullpen games in this series, they desperately need Fried to eat innings here. Over his last two postseasons, he has lasted at least six innings in five of his seven starts with a 3.34 ERA.
Fried throws a great fastball and mixes up his two breaking balls, throwing a curveball and slider both effectively. His curveball is especially good, allowing a .160 batting average and generating a 42.7 strikeout rate. He allows just an 86.5 average exit velocity, which is in the top 10% of the league.
Despite losing Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season, the Braves' offense got really hot down the stretch of the season. They finished the year ninth in wOBA and 12th in wRC+.
Eddie Rosario is on another level right now and is batting .465 with a 1.278 OPS during the playoffs. Getting Jorge Soler back from the COVID-19 list has already shown its importance with his leadoff home run Tuesday night.
Astros Hope Offense Clicks Behind Urquidy
Injuries have led to José Urquidy (RHP) starting Game 2 of the World Series after his first full season in the big leagues. He missed two months with injury, but started 20 games, going 8-3 with an 3.62 ERA and 4.38 xFIP.
The lone start this postseason for Urquidy did not go well. He got pulled in the second inning after allowing five earned runs against the Red Sox, striking out just one and walking two batters. He did allow just one run in two of his three outings during the playoffs last year.
Walking multiple batters was the most shocking part of Urquidy’s struggled in the last series. During the regular season has posted a 1.60 BB/9 and ranked in the top 4% of the league in walk rate. He allowed multiple walks just once in his final 16 starts of the year.
Houston had the best offense in the league all season and that has carried them through the postseason as well. After leading the league in wRC+ during the regular season, the Astros are averaging 6.3 runs per game during the playoffs.
The entire lineup is hitting the ball well this playoffs. Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez have be hit machines, and Kyle Tucker leads the team in home runs and all postseason players in RBIs.
Braves-Astros Pick
Game 1 is supposed to be a battle of aces, but instead, each team was forced to turn to the bullpen much earlier than they hoped. Now, with the bullpens taxed early, even more pressure falls on Wednesday’s starting pitcher.
Atlanta has been much better against right-handed pitchers all season. The Braves ranked eighth in wOBA and 11th in wRC+ against righties. They also rank eighth in the league against fastballs, which Urquidy throws 55% of the time. Urquidy has just a 7.57 K/9 rate, and is not a threat to miss a lot of bats.
Fried has excellent stuff, but the Astros have crushed left-handed pitching all season. They had the highest wRC+ against southpaws this year. During the postseason, they are batting .305 with a .838 OPS against lefties.
A total of nine relief pitchers needed to be used last night, and that could be an issue for two bullpens that aren’t exactly elite.
I think the best bet on Wednesday is to back the bats and play over 8.5 at -110, and play down to -115.
For those who enjoy player props, I also like Yuli Gurriel over 1.5 total bases. He was the Astros' best hitter against lefties this year, batting .326 with a .925 OPS. He has also been red-hot, batting .349 with an .833 OPS during the playoffs and has at least two total bases in five of his last eight games.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) | Yuli Gurriel over 1.5 Total Bases
