Houston's bats woke up in Game 2, and the Astros smacked around Max Fried to the tune of six runs over five innings.
That's tied the series up, and the Braves are sending the youngster Ian Anderson to the mound in an uber-important Game 3.
The projections absolutely love Anderson tonight, and there's a ton of value in his strikeout total.
The first pitch is at 8:09 p.m. ET today, and the Braves are slight favorites with Anderson on the mound.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Ian Anderson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
This is a tough spot to take Anderson, as the Houston lineup is very disciplined and today's umpire, Tom Hallion, tends to favor hitters.
However, 3.5 is a very low line and we're getting it at an even-money price. Considering the Action Labs Player Props tool projects Anderson at 5.8 Ks, and FanGraphs' SaberSim projections have Anderson at 4.62, this bet has too much value to pass up.
Between the low number and good price, our player props projections provide a 32.5% edge on the line DraftKings is offering.
Despite the potential setbacks, there are reasons to be optimistic.
Anderson struck out four or more batters in 20 of his 24 regular-season starts this season (83%), and has also hit this line in two of his three playoff starts. He's posted an 8.7 K/9 this season, so in theory, Anderson should cash this prop if he pitches four innings tonight.
I'm looking to make a smaller play on Anderson's over tonight, and hope he shoves in a very important Game 3 matchup.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
