Updated Braves vs. Astros Odds
| Braves Odds | +110 |
| Astros Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 8:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via FanDuel on Tuesday morning. Get live MLB odds here. | |
We got an "Any Given Sunday" moment in baseball during Game 5 of the World Series, as the Houston Astros forced a Game 6 by storming back to beat the Atlanta Braves two days ago. It was Atlanta's first loss at home this postseason.
Max Fried will start for Atlanta in Game 6 in Houston. He was tagged for five runs in five innings in Game 2. Luis Garcia gets his first start at home of the World Series. He struggled despite only allowing one earned run Game 3, allowing seven baserunners (four walks) in 3 2/3 innings.
Will either pitcher rebound from a poor performance, and if not, which offense will strike?
In three Atlanta wins, eight or fewer runs have been scored in each game. In two Houston wins, at least nine runs have been scored in each contest.
Fried, Atlanta Offense Need to Fire on All Cylinders
It can be argued that the Braves southpaw is more likely to bounce back from a poor performance, especially with Fried on normal rest. The issue is Fried has a 4.53 career postseason ERA and is coming off his worst two-start stretch in his postseason career. The 11 earned runs he has allowed against the Astros in Game 2 and Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS are the most in two consecutive outings since April 7 and 13, when Fried allowed 12.
Despite losing Game 2, Fried was aggressive against an offense known for patience. That caused the Astros to have 14 swinging strikes, the most against Fried this postseason. It feels like Fried executed well but was bested by the best offense in baseball.
That means the Braves' hitters have to reprise their Game 3 strategy away from the friendly confines. Seven baserunners in three-plus innings is a great way to chase starting pitchers, but only accounting for one run at home in that scenario could have been disastrous.
The entire lineup has to contribute Game 6, but a strong performance by Ozzie Albies would go a long way. He was held hitless in Atlanta and only reached base three times (five strikeouts). The bats of Freddie Freeman and Adam Duvall woke up, now the Braves need Albies's to do the same.
Astros' Offense Remains Dangerous
When all else fails, out-slug the opponent. The Astros had every reason to feel dead in the water following Adam Duvall's grand slam Game 5 and still found a way to win. Houston took advantage of back-to-back bullpen games and can force a Game 7 with another beat down of Fried.
The Braves bullpen will be available minus Drew Smyly since he threw three innings in Game 5. The Astros got to A.J. Minter Sunday, who has been one of the better relievers in the playoffs.
If the Astros offense can figure out Tyler Matzek and Luke Jackson Game 6, look out.
Garcia has been a revelation for the Astros' rotation in 2021. He failed on a big stage Game 3, which is OK considering that was his shortest start since April 5 and most walks allowed all season. His loss Game 3 also looks worse too because the Astros offense was held in check, a rarity.
The safety and familiarity of pitching at home should matter for Garcia. Heading into the playoffs, Garcia's home ERA was 2.29. Away from Houston his ERA was 4.24 and his slugging percentage against was .426, 75 points higher than at home.
Braves-Astros Pick
Five games of seeing the same opponent takes away from of the advantages held by either team earlier in the series. Game 6 will come down to which starting pitcher performs better.
Both offenses are as close to locked in as they have been since the start of the series. I like the Astros outright but the value is on the run total. When the Astros win, they score a lot. They should win on Tuesday, meaning the over is the play.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-120, bet to -135 and bet the total up to 9.5 runs)
