Braves vs. Astros Odds
| Braves Odds | +100 |
| Astros Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 8:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Atlanta beat up on the Astros in Game 1 and with Charlie Morton going down, the Braves are sending their new ace to the mound for Game 2.
Max Fried is a great pitcher who had an excellent second half of the year. I'm targeting him today.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Max Fried Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)
In the regular season, Fried cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 15 starts. He then went on the road for Game 2 of the NLDS and struck out nine Brewers.
While he was unable to hit this number in Game 5 of the NLCS, Fried was lit up by the Dodgers in that matchup, and he had a quick hook in an elimination game.
I believe he bounces back strongly tonight in Houston.
Through September and October, the Dodgers and Astros hit lefties similarly. However, Houston has struck out at a slightly higher rate and posted a slightly lower wRC+ in that span.
Plus, unlike the Dodgers in the NLCS, the Astros haven't had the luxury of seeing Fried twice yet. In fact, Fried has never pitched against the Astros in his career, which gives the southpaw the advantage.
Fried also has an umpire advantage today. Ron Kulpa is behind the plate, and not only is he 270-200 lifetime to the under (57.5%, +41.95 units), he's recorded a 1.18x K-boost, per Swish Analytics, which is third-highest among umpires that have called at least 50 games.
The Action Labs Player Props tool projects Fried will notch 5.9 Ks tonight, creating a massive edge on the 3.5 number.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
