Braves vs. Cardinals Odds
| Braves Odds | -145 |
| Cardinals Odds | +122 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Two of the NL's better clubs will meet Friday when the Atlanta Braves head to Busch Stadium for a three-game set with the St. Louis Cardinals. Both teams are in the midst of dominant stretches of success.
Spencer Strider will take the mound for the Braves, looking to build upon what has been a stellar rookie season and continue making a strong case for NL Rookie of the Year.
Strider will battle with veteran Jose Quintana, who has turned back the clock at age 33 this season for a surprisingly strong season, posting a 3.45 ERA in 122 2/3 innings.
Will Quintana continue what has been a strong start to his Cardinals career Friday against an elite Braves lineup?
Atlanta Matches Up Well With Quintana
Atlanta's red-hot lineup has historically hit Quintana well, and could be well positioned for another solid day at the plate despite a solid season-long ERA from the lefty.
In 103 previous plate appearances, Atlanta's roster has hit to a .343 xwOBA and .429 xSLG versus Quintana, and dominated the veteran on June 12th in Atlanta for four earned runs in five innings.
Quintana has been far from the only left-handed pitcher who has struggled against the World Series champs this season, as the Braves have been the fourth-best team in the league versus lefties by wRC+ at 118.
Some early offense from the Braves could go a long way with Strider on the mound. He has been spectacular this season and is pitted in a close battle with teammate Michael Harris for NL Rookie of the Year.
Strider has a stellar xERA of 2.50 and 2.95 ERA altogether this season, and has remained consistent with an ERA of 3.10 in August and a WHIP of just 1.03.
Among pitchers with at least 60 innings, Strider owns the best strikeout mark in the league at 37.3%, and St. Louis saw first hand on July 7th how good Strider's stuff is, striking out 12 times and managing zero earned runs.
Cardinals Better Than Previous Matchup With Strider
Strider is seeing the Cardinals in far better form than in that prior contest, as St. Louis has hit to a wRC+ of 136 since that game with a .477 SLG rate, which are the second-best marks in the league during that time.
Quintana has remained in strong form himself since joining the Cards at the deadline, pitching to an ERA of 3.20 in 19 2/3 IP, albeit with a concerning WHIP of 1.42.
Quintana's 2022 results have been a massive turnaround from the 6.43 ERA we saw a season ago, and as you might expect Quintana has run with some favorable luck.
Quintana's xERA of 4.12 is considerably worse than his actual results, and his poor QOPA of 3.98 is also regression compared to his 2021 average.
Both of those marks mean far from everything, but it does seem quite possible Quintana is likely to at a minimum be less dominant than we have seen so far this season moving forward.
Braves-Cardinals Pick
With how Atlanta has crushed left-handed pitching all season long, and it's previous results versus Quintana, the Braves could manage a strong offensive output against Quintana.
With Strider on the mound, that should give them an early lead, and I believe there is value in backing the Braves to win the first five innings at -110.
With how each of these offenses has played, Quintana on the mound, and a Braves pen which has featured a very modest 4.12 xFIP throughout August, I do believe a game total of 7.5 at +100 is also a little low, and that we should be playing the over on the game total at 7.5 to -110 in this spot.
Pick: Atlanta Braves F5 Innings -0.5 -110 (Play to -115), Over 7.5 +100 (Play to -110)
