Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds Wednesday | MLB Picks Today (July 10)
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Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 9 -104o / -118u | -1.5 +130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 9 -104o / -118u | +1.5 -156 |
The Braves go for a fifth straight win and a series victory on Wednesday night at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks.
Atlanta stole Monday's series opener with Sean Murphy's two-run homer with two outs in the ninth, before managing a commanding 6-2 victory on Tuesday behind another solid showing from NL Cy Young contender Chris Sale.
Wednesday's matchup is priced quite evenly — Braves vs Diamondbacks odds have the Braves as -118 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (-104o / -118u) for the starting pitching matchup between Charlie Morton (3.96 ERA, 91 IP) and Slade Cecconi (6.10 ERA, 62 IP). Find my two Braves vs Diamondbacks predictions in my Wednesday MLB betting preview below.
Atlanta Braves
While Morton appears to be a slightly lesser pitcher than his 3.96 ERA suggests, what he has done at the age of 40 this season has to be considered impressive. He holds an xERA of 4.30 and an xFIP of 4.01, and he has managed to work 91 innings thus far.
Morton owns a Stuff+ rating of 94 and Location+ rating of 98. He has continued to throw a ton of curveballs as you would expect, which will suit the eye of the Diamondbacks, who own a fourth-best weighted Curveball Runs Above Average (6.9) this season.
The Braves seem to be beginning to play to their potential offensively after a long stretch of middling results. Over the last month, Atlanta owns a wRC+ of just 86 against right-handed pitching, which ranks 26th in MLB. It has struck out 26.2% of the time in that span, with the fourth-worst BB/K (0.32).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Slade Cecconi could help the Diamondbacks post better pitching results in the second half of the season. The 25 year-old features a solid four-pitch mix, which holds a Stuff+ rating of 99 and Location+ rating of 105 so far this season.
While it's been a horrid start to the year for Cecconi, his 4.12 xERA and 4.49 xFIP suggest he will stabilize to more livable numbers in time. Over his last seven starts, Cecconi owns a 3.62 xFIP, but he has allowed a BABIP of .406, and stranded just 66% of baserunners. He should find positive regression on both of those fronts, which would have him looking like a far more reasonable starting option.
The Diamondbacks offense enters in elite form versus right-handed pitching. Over the last 30 days, they own the fifth-best wRC+ (-120) versus righties with a .785 OPS. They hold the second-best BB/K ratio in the league over that span at 0.55.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the differing ERAs of these starters and the Braves' strong form, it might look a little surprising to see the Diamondbacks priced as only the slightest of underdogs — with the price still moving toward Arizona. It makes sense though when you break the game down, and it looks like the Diamondbacks actually deserve to be the favorite here.
Cecconi and Morton feature highly comparable underlying results, and there is an argument to be made that as Cecconi settles in moving forward, his higher-quality stuff will allow him to be the better of the two starters this season. The Diamondbacks offense has been on fire and has offered considerably better results than Atlanta for a fairly large sample.
At -105, there looks to be value backing the Diamondbacks to win outright. Backing Morton to allow over 2.5 earned runs at +105 also looks worthy of a bet at anything better than +100.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -105 (Play to -110), Charlie Morton Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed +105 (Play to +100)
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