Braves vs. Dodgers Odds
| Braves Odds | +118 |
| Dodgers Odds | -138 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-112 / -108) |
| Time | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Atlanta Braves will look to finish off this rematch of last year's NLCS in style and improve its mediocre record against a scorching hot Los Angeles Dodgers side.
Atlanta will send Charlie Morton to the mound, and he will look to get things moving in the right direction after a less-than-dominant start to 2022. The Dodgers will start Tony Gonsolin, who has pitched seven excellent innings to start the campaign across two outings.
With how Gonsolin has pitched early this spring and the Dodgers' red-hot order, is it fair for LA to be priced as just -135 favorites?
Braves Enter on Hot Streak
Atlanta has started this NLCS rematch with two really sharp efforts at the plate, managing 10 hits Monday off of Clayton Kershaw and some powerhouse relievers before putting together a quality day Tuesday with eight hits off of Walker Buehler.
The reasonable run output to begin this series could have been much greater with more timely hit sequencing, and I feel the process has been really sharp at the plate.
The signs are there that this potent lineup could be on the cusp of some crooked innings, so Gonsolin will have his hands full.
The Braves have hit to a wRC+ of 105 to start the season with a .328 wOBA. With how Matt Olson has looked in the early going, it appears likely the World Series champs will return as expected — as one of the more productive lineups in baseball.
Charlie Morton has pitched to an actual era of 6.35 with an xERA of 4.25 and an xSLG% of 442. However, that comes through a tiny 173-pitch sample size, and his quality of pitch average has remained strong at 4.73 through those appearances.
Morton was as effective as ever last season with an xERA of 3.32, and when his breaking stuff is true to form, he can be nearly unhittable.
Ruling him into fade territory after one collapse against the Padres doesn't seem to be the right idea to me yet. For now, I feel it's a safer idea to chalk that up to a weird start to the year that has seen a number of prominent starters struggle.
Can Gonsolin Be Effective?
Dave Roberts proclaimed his team would be the World Series winners come fall. In a season with sky-high expectations, the Dodgers have immediately clicked into high gear,
Wednesday's starter, the 27-year-old right-hander Gonsolin, has only raised the expectations for his club through his first five innings this season, as he holds a minuscule ERA of just 1.29.
However, his xERA is a higher mark of 3.40, and he did not hang around long enough to face either the Reds' or Rockies' lineup for a third time. His QOPA has been strong, not elite, at 4.57.
Gonsolin should be very effective this season, but we should expect such elite numbers moving forward. He has no meaningful history against the Braves' lineup, but Atlanta did get to him for five runs over four innings in relief during last year's NLCS.
Should he allow a higher offensive output yet again to the Braves, it could be covered by what has been a lethal Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers' loaded order has batted effectively to begin the season, hitting to a 132 wRC+ and a .355 wOBA.
Braves-Dodgers Pick
Atlanta has been poised for an offensive breakout all series long, and I think it can keep building on the positive progress seen at the plate in the last two games against Gonsolin here.
A bounce-back from Morton in this big spot shouldn't surprise anybody either, as ultimately his stuff appears to be playing close to his regular standard to begin the season.
With the kind of start Morton is capable of providing and the effective process Atlanta's powerhouse order has started to display, I see value in taking the Braves at +115. I'd back Atlanta down to +110.
Pick: Braves ML +115 (Play to +110)
