Braves vs. Dodgers Odds
| Braves Odds | +160 |
| Dodgers Odds | -190 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Game 3 of the NLCS shifts to Los Angeles as the Dodgers look to win their first game after two heartbreaking walk-off losses in Atlanta.
The Atlanta Braves look to keep history on their side; 73 of 87 teams to lead 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win that series (84% win rate). Only two teams have came back from 0-2 in the NLCS. One of those teams? The 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers against the Atlanta Braves.
Famously, only one team has come back from 0-3. Will Atlanta be able to tamper down the memories of 2020 and put a stranglehold on the series? And if not, is there a way the Braves help give us a betting angle worth firing on?
Braves Need Consistent Hitting, Classic Morton
The last time Atlanta starter Charlie Morton pitched in Dodger Stadium in the postseason, he clinched the World Series for the Houston Astros with four innings of relief work. He pitched on short rest in Game 4 of the NLDS but will be on regular rest tonight.
Morton was excellent on the road in 2021. He finished with a 3.06 road ERA and a .185/.282/.273 slash line against. In his August 31 start at L.A., Morton went six innings, allowing three hits and one earned run with eight strikeouts. Needless to say, Morton is the right pitcher to open the next set of games away from Atlanta for the Braves.
Atlanta has won despite the lack of hitting from players such as Freddie Freeman. The former MVP has struck out in seven of eight at-bats. Joc Pederson's heroics and Eddie Rosario's hot hitting helped propel the Braves to their Game 2 walk-off, but any semblance of consistent hitting would go a long way in ensuring a stranglehold on the series and not depending on late-inning luck and heroics.
Buehler and the Light at the End of the Tunnel for the Offense
Injuries can be the easy out when looking at another 0-2 hole to dig out of. Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Clayton Kershaw are key pieces and would fill noticeable voids, especially with Trea Turner not hitting this postseason (.200 average).
The inconsistency has come from the offense. In three postseason wins, the Dodgers' offense averages six runs per game. In their losses, L.A. is averaging 1.5 runs per game, including two shutouts.
The Braves' pitching staff is a clear step down in pitching from the Giants in the NLDS, so getting back home should at least help push the offense in the right direction. It also helps that the Dodgers enjoyed home cooking all season long.
Walker Buehler is starting on normal rest after pitching on short rest against the Giants. And just like Morton, he pitched well when his team needed it. Buehler's 2.05 home ERA is a full run better than his road mark (3.08) with the biggest difference in his home/road splits coming from batting average. Opposing hitters batted .192 against Buehler at Chavez Ravine with right-handed hitters only accumulating a .189 average.
Much like Morton, the Dodgers have the best option toeing the rubber while trying to get back in this NLCS.
Braves-Dodgers Pick
Kudos to the Braves and Dodgers for handling adversity as well as they have. Atlanta rebuilt its outfield at the trade deadline and it has paid dividends. The Dodgers played one game without one of the better postseason hitters in recent history and an MVP candidate. That does not include the Kershaw, the heart of the team and pitching in twilight of his career.
7.5 runs is a great number. Between the two teams, only three games have topped that number and one of them was Game 2.
A series does not begin until the home team loses, right? The Dodgers are heavy favorites and I am not interested in the juiced number. The Dodgers are the better team but to assume the Braves at that much worse is an error.
Pick: Braves ML (+160. Bet over total runs if the number goes down to 7)
