Braves vs. Dodgers Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | -130 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 +100o / -120u | +110 |
Thursday's 8-7 thriller between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers gave an exciting glimpse into a potential in NLCS, as two of the best offenses in baseball showed well versus quality pitching.
Friday's Braves vs. Dodgers matchup features another high-quality pitching showdown, as two of last year's NL Cy Young nominees face off in Max Fried (2.85 ERA, 53 and 2/3 IP) and Julio Urias (4.41 ERA, 112 and 1/3 IP).
Atlanta Braves
The Braves made quick work of Lance Lynn Thursday, who had been in drastically better form since arriving in L.A., but managed to go just 4 1/3 innings while allowing seven earned runs. The Braves have hit to a wRC+ of 137 over the last 30 days, and have hard-hit balls 38.3% of the time (2nd), while featuring a third best BB/K rate of 0.49.
In splits specific to left-handed pitching this season, Atlanta has been the best team in the league by some margin. Their 137 wRC+ rates first, while the nearest team is the Astros at 126. Eight of the Braves' nine likely batters Friday feature drastically better than league average results in splits to left-handed pitchers.
Fried features an underlying profile quite similar to last season, as he has allowed an xERA of 2.69 with an xFIP of 3.16. He owns a Stuff+ of 96, with a Location+ of 98.
Since returning from injury on August 4th after being out for three months, Fried has been slightly less dominant. He owns a WHIP of 1.34, with an ERA of 3.58 across 27 2/3 innings. His per-game xFIP has averaged 3.02 in those starts.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers continued their impressive offensive play in the series opener, as they put up seven runs off of Spencer Strider and some high-quality bullpen arms. They have now hit to a wRC+ of 134 over the last 30 days, with a 0.48 BB/K ratio and a hard-hit rate of 33%.
The Dodgers have hit to a fourth-best wRC+ of 120 versus left-handed pitching this season, and should be missing only J.D. Martinez (106 wRC+ versus LHP) Friday in terms of relevant bats versus lefties.
Urias has taken significant steps backward this season, allowing a 4.41 ERA and 3.96 xERA. His xFIP comes in at 4.06 compared to a mark of 3.81 a year ago. Over his last five outings, Urias owns an xFIP well above his season long mark at 4.32, yet an ERA of 2.90.
Braves vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two offenses showed out in an electric series opener on Thursday, and looking for a similar narrative to play out Friday makes sense. These lineups are two of the four best in MLB in splits specific to left-handed pitching, and Friday's conditions should be somewhat favorable to run production.
Urias's earned run total is set at 2.5 with a price of +100 to go over, which is giving a lot of respect to his work specific to this season in a matchup versus Atlanta. Urias being overvalued is a key reason this total is a touch low for me.
Fried has not been as entirely dominant since returning from the IL either, and has faced a notably easy slate of competition.
Betting the over 8.5 at anything better than -120 is my favorite play from the game. Looking toward Urias to allow over 2.5 earned runs is another quality option.
