Editor's Note: The Mets announced early Tuesday afternoon that David Peterson would start Game 1 of the doubleheader. Carlos Carrasco will start Game 2.
Braves vs. Mets Game 1 Odds
| Braves Odds | +102 |
| Mets Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The odds-on favorites to claim the NL East crown will meet for an important doubleheader Tuesday when the Mets host the Braves at Citi Field.
New York has come flying out of the gates this season and leads the division at 16-8. It will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound, hoping to bounce back after a tough outing in St. Louis.
Atlanta found a crucial victory in the series opener Monday. Max Fried pitched six strong innings, and Travis d'Arnaud posted 3 RBIs in the Braves' 5-2 victory.
The Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound for Game 1 and hope he can find the form we're used to seeing in a big spot.
Both of these pitchers have been out of form, but are they due for better results moving forward?
Will Braves' Lineup Step Up?
The NL East race figures to be much tougher for the Braves in 2022, and seeing Morton pick up his game will be very important to Atlanta's chances — at least until Mike Soroka can return.
Morton has struggled badly to start the season, pitching to a 1-2 record with an xERA of 6.30 through 18 innings. He has walked 12.8% of batters faced while allowing a .315 XBA.
His stuff hasn't looked far worse, but a 4.42 QOPA average on the entirety of his pitches is still far below his 4.68 mark in 2021. Mix that in with the uptick in walks, and it's been a rough start in a season when pitchers have had the upper hand in a big way.
Atlanta owns the 16th-best wRC+ at 104 so far this season, and it also has a .316 wOBA. The Braves have the eighth-best hard-hit rate of 41.1% and second-best barrel rate of 11.1%.
Looking towards its splits against right-handed pitching, Atlanta holds similar results to its overall numbers, with a 100 wRC+ and a .311 wOBA. The Braves did finish 11th and eighth in those two categories vs. right-handers last season, respectively.
With Matt Olson in excellent form and Ronald Acuna Jr. now back in the mix, it's fair to say this could be somewhat of a low point for a strong order still featuring some positive underlying numbers.
Mets Should Challenge Morton
The Mets will lineup has crushed right-handed pitching to start this 2022 campaign, and their vastly improved batting order should offer quite a test for Morton.
New York has hit to second-best marks in wRC+ (128) and wOBA (.340).
Eduardo Escobar has been an excellent addition so far, and although we know they aren't going to finish top-five in major batting categories, it seems quite possible the Mets will be far more productive throughout the entirety of this campaign.
The Mets have also hit the curveball much more effectively with a +0.7 wCB, which is a positive note heading into this matchup against Morton. That will be big if Carrasco doesn't entirely dominate here and requires more run support.
The 35-year-old legend seems to be falling into some natural regression and has pitched to a below-average 4.29 QOPA this season. He also features below-average fastball velocity and spin rates.
He's a clever pitcher and has made it work, playing to just a 2.68 xERA so far. But it seems fairly natural to expect regression toward his xERA of 4.69 last season given what his stuff has actually looked like.
Braves-Mets Pick
Atlanta's offense appears to be trending in the right direction with a number of key pieces offering better at-bats the last several days. The Braves get a solid matchup here with what we have seen from Carrasco over a larger sample size the last two seasons.
Morton's struggles appear to be fairly legitimate, as his stuff isn't exactly where it has been for most of his dominant career. Even a vastly improved start would likely see the Mets earning 2-3 runs and getting into the Braves' pen sooner rather than later.
So, even with the conditions not primed for hitting, I see value in backing this contest to go over 7 at -120 and would play that to -125.
Either team gaining a notable lead heading into the final few innings would work in our favor here, as each would likely save the top bullpen arms for Game 2.
Pick: Over 7 (-120 | Play to -125)
