Braves vs Mets Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -162 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +104 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -120 |
Spencer Strider will look to continue an early case for the NL Cy Young on Saturday as the Braves visit the rival Mets at Citi Field. Strider nearly no-hit Miami last time out, finishing with 13 strikeouts over eight innings.
New York will turn to Tylor Megill to try and get things moving back in the right direction. Megill has pitched to a 3.96 ERA throughout 25 innings.
Where does the betting value lie for this NL East matchup? Let's dive in.
Atlanta Braves
Many of the NL's top aces have scuffled out of the gates with disappointing starts to the year. Strider has done the opposite, dominating on the mound en route to a 3-0 record and 1.80 ERA. He is now the outright favorite in the NL Cy Young race at +200.
Strider's 2.40 xERA is just a hair below last season's mark of 2.39, but there are some meaningful arguments that suggest he's actually pitching at a higher level this season. His whiff rate is at an unheard-of mark of 40.1%, and he has struck out 42.6% of batters faced. His xSLG rate is down to .266, as is his xBA at .175.
The only area where Strider has taken a slight step backward comes with his walk rate, which is up to 9.5%.
Offensively, the Braves remain dominant. Their .354 xwOBA paces baseball. The results are there where it matters most, as they boast the sixth-most runs per game. They also own the sixth-best wRC+ mark at 112.
Atlanta has been less dominant in its splits versus right-handed pitching, hitting to a wRC+ of 104 versus righties.
Last season, though, Atlanta finished with a wRC+ of 108 versus right-handed pitching, which was the seventh-best mark in the league. Considering the names still in the lineup, I believe that prior mark deserves some respect. Perhaps the Braves trend toward that mark deeper into the year.
New York Mets
Megill will be in for a tough Saturday versus the Braves. His .530 xSLG rate is in the 13th percentile, and he will face the team that leads baseball in xSLG rate. Megill's xERA sits all the way up at 6.48.
Over a larger sample, the sheer amount of hard contact should stabilize. Even still, it appears likely that Megill could underachieve most preseason projections that projected him right around a 4.30 ERA.
The wind will likely blow in from center field somewhat significantly in this matchup. That should favor Megill and the Mets more so than this hard-hitting Braves team that has a historically strong strikeout pitcher on the mound.
Offensively, the Mets look very similar to what we saw last season. They've displayed elite plate discipline, striking out just 20.2% of the time while owning the league's best BB/K rate at 0.53.
Their xSLG rating of .394 ranks 21st in the league, though, and a lack of power is still somewhat of a concern.
The Mets have found success versus righties with a 109 wRC+.
Braves vs Mets Betting Pick
Strider has been as dominant as any starter in baseball over a lofty sample of 160 innings. He offers a significant edge over Megill.
Atlanta has been worse against right-handed pitching, which it'll see from Megill. Even still, the Braves boasted a top-10 offense versus righties last season and should hang around that mark this season.
Atlanta is priced at -110 to cover -0.5 in the first five innings. I believe that's actually a very playable number and would back the Braves to win the first five down to -120.
Pick: Braves F5 -0.5 |
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