After a brutal night at the plate on Tuesday, the Atlanta Braves will look to remain alive in their wild-card series in San Diego when they take on veteran Joe Musgrove and the Padres.
A growing strikeout rate could pose some significant issues for an undisciplined Braves team which has relied upon power for much of the season, and another quiet night at the dish could spell the end of Atlanta's season with Max Fried taking the ball following two brutal postseason outings.
What can we expect out of these two arms, and which player might star offensively?
Let's select the three most attractive player props for Braves vs. Padres Game 2 on Wednesday and craft a same-game parlay.
Kenny Ducey's Braves vs Padres MLB Parlay Picks for Game 2 — 10/2
- Joe Musgrove 6+ Strikeouts (-115)
- Max Fried Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
- Jurickson Profar 1+ Hits (-205)
Parlay Odds: +365 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
We'll start off here by backing a developing trend in Joe Musgrove's strikeout numbers.
The right-hander hasn't had the most straightforward season, starting off in brutal fashion before missing a few months due to injury, but since he's returned there's been a clear focus in terms of racking up outs on strikes. With Musgrove's ground ball numbers taking a dive this season and his Expected Batting Average jumping to .251 — his highest mark since 2019 — he's been forced to hunt punchouts.
Since returning off the injured list on August 12th, Musgrove's improved drastically with a .212 xBA and .366 Expected Slugging, but the most drastic area of growth has been a 29.1% strikeout rate in nine starts, sitting pretty next to a 4.1% walk rate. He hasn't flashed this type of strikeout upside in over three years, when he put up a 27.1% K-rate in 2021, and he's now brought his whiff rate up over 28% after sitting at 26% or worse in the past two seasons.
Musgrove's struck out six or more in seven of his last eight starts, and will meet a Braves team that went down on strikes a stunning 15 times on Tuesday night. Considering they've had issues with punchouts all year long, ranking ninth-worst at a 24% clip this season and sitting at 24.3% in the second half — this certainly isn't a negative matchup for the veteran.
While this bullpen is rested, I think Musgrove will be given a long leash here and should get home on this number considering he owns a 25% strikeout rate in his career against these batters.
One man who shouldn't have a great outlook in the strikeout department is Max Fried, whose punchout rate against these Padres hitters sits at 18.1% over his career with just a 19.3% whiff rate against him.
San Diego was the very best team in baseball at limiting strikeouts all year, continuing to do so at a ridiculous 17.2% rate in the second half, and against lefties it's actually seen a 0.6-point improvement here.
After keeping to just five strikeouts against Atlanta on Tuesday, this should be an attainable number even if Fried works somewhat deep into this matchup. The Padres love putting swings on the ball, and Fried has dealt more than 50% of his pitches into the strike zone this season, so there should be plenty of contact to be had.
It's also not a guarantee Fried does survive, considering he owns a .278 xBA in his career against this lineup and has pitched to a middling .240 xBA since the beginning of August. He's also recorded a brutal 8.59 ERA with just five strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings in his only two postseason starts since the Braves' World Series run in 2021.
We'll need to dig deep here to find the safest hitter to back, considering the playoffs are normally bereft of hits and runs.
While I did give some thought to Luis Arraez here, even against a left-hander, one thing I'm noting coming into this one is the fact that Fried introduced a sweeper as a focal point of his arsenal in September — throwing it at the third-most frequent clip next to his fastball and curveball. After throwing just 67 through five months, he unleashed 95 last month.
The sample size on sweepers versus a lefty over a one-year span is quite small, so backing up over the last two we see that Profar's handled this pitch from southpaws quite well since the start of 2023 with a .286 xBA. He's posted a solid .279 xBA against curveballs from lefties over that same span, bringing it up to .301 this year in particular, with a .294 xBA against heaters since last April.
It should come as no surprise, then, to see that Profar's gone 3-for-8 off Fried in his career for a .394 xBA and .431 xSLG in his eight at-bats. Despite a tough night on Tuesday, I believe in Profar here after he finished the season with a strong .275 average in September and hit .300 off lefties in 2024 — 27 points better than the reverse platoon split.
