The San Diego Padres are going for the four-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves to kick off their 2025 campaign on Sunday Night Baseball. AJ Smith-Shawver will be on the mound for Atlanta, and the newest Padre, Nick Pivetta, will oppose him.
Oddsmakers have the Braves as a short underdog; the total is 8. I compiled a 3-leg SGP for Sunday Night Baseball that pays a shade over 8-1 on your original investment. I've been very close to hitting my first two MLB parlays this season — let’s try to get in the win tonight!
Find my Braves vs Padres Sunday Night Baseball parlay picks for March 30 below.
Sunday Night Baseball Parlay — Braves vs Padres
- Orlando Arcia Over 1.5 Total Bases +190
- Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts -118
- Atlanta Braves Moneyline +108
Parlay Odds: +860 (Fanatics)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Orlando Arcia Over 1.5 Total Bases +190
This is a long shot to kick off the parlay, but these odds were far too enticing.
Orlando Arcia has one hit in 2025, but he’s destroyed Pivetta in the past. In nine plate appearances, Arcia is 6-for-9 with two HRs and one double. It’s safe to say he's seen the ball exceptionally well out of Pivetta’s hands, and I think tonight he should have 2-3 at-bats against him to get this done.
Arcia isn’t the greatest hitter, but he did have a .430 SLG against fastballs last season, which Pivetta throws 49% of the time.
I am OK with taking a chance here given his history against Pivetta, and this Atlanta lineup is due to turn things around offensively sooner rather than later.
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts -118
Pivetta was a solid addition to the Padres rotation and now draws an enticing matchup against the Braves.
As I mentioned the other night, Atlanta struck out the eighth most in baseball last season, and Pivetta should have a great chance to clear this prop total.
In 2024, Pivetta had a 29% K rate and 30% chase rate, which is impressive given that he mostly uses a 2-3 pitch arsenal.
The Braves lineup is struggling, but they are far too talented to stay stagnant for long.
I don’t think that will factor into Pivetta racking up punchouts tonight, especially since he’s seen many of these Atlanta hitters. In 135 plate appearances, the Braves have struck out 26% of the time against Pivetta.
Pivetta is always capable of a blow-up inning, but I think we will see him reach six strikeouts before that occurs.
Braves Moneyline +108
I’ve been hinting at this throughout the article, but I will anchor this parlay with my favorite pick for the matchup. I like the Braves to avoid the sweep tonight in San Diego.
The Braves offense looked lost last night, as they were shut out in a 1-0 defeat.
With that said, I like their matchup against Pivetta. I think they will strike out their fair share, but they’ve seen him so often that I believe familiarity will ignite this offense.
In the past, the Braves have batted just .222 against Pivetta, but they’ve mashed 11 home runs off him.
That batting average isn’t the best, but their long-ball success depicts Pivetta. He’s a pitcher with excellent strikeout stuff but is vulnerable to allowing a lot of hard contact.
Orlando Arcia, Marcell Ozuna (6 HRs), Austin Riley and Matt Olson have all gone deep against Pivetta in the past. Also, Pivetta only had a 33% GB rate in 2024, with a 10% barrel rate, which ranked in the 10th percentile amongst all MLB pitchers.
The Braves have a lot of free swingers in their lineup, but I expect them to do some damage on the scoreboard in between those punchouts.
Atlanta avoids the sweep tonight, and the sharp money across the betting counter on them seems to agree with me.
