The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres square off in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday, October 1, at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Here are my Braves vs Padres player props for Game 1 for Michael King and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Nick Martin's Braves vs Padres Player Props — Game 1
- Michael King to Record a Win (+170, bet365/DraftKings)
- King to Record a Win + Padres -2.5 Parlay (+280, bet365)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, bet365)
King in a Good Spot for Padres
The Braves caught a break, sneaking into the playoffs in Game 162 by besting the Mets' worst arms in game two of yesterday's doubleheader.
Such a break was warranted for Atlanta, though, given its horrid luck with injuries to elite players this season.
As Chris Sale is unable to make the start, the Braves are left without a healthy starter on regular rest and appear to be mulling over their options from a trio of unconvincing minor leaguers in Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder.
The Braves also used a lot of high quality relief arms in yesterday's doubleheader and are facing one of the few teams featuring a comparably dominant bullpen.
Raisel Iglesias and Joe Jimenez each pitched in both matchups yesterday, and Daysbel Hernandez has thrown 50 pitches since Sunday.
Whatever the pitching combination ends up being for the Braves, it'll leave them at a significant disadvantage, given the usage of high leverage arms yesterday and the fact that the Padres will have King on the mound in this matchup.
King has been among the NL's best pitchers in the season's second half, with a 2.15 ERA across 62 2/3 innings of work. He's allowed a xBA of .219 in that span and an xFIP of 3.27. He has also struck out 10.34 batters per nine and holds a K-BB% of 19.8.
The Braves' lineup has hit to a wRC+ of just 93 against right-handed pitchers over the last month, striking out 21.8% of the time. The Padres rank sixth in wRC+ in that span and have struck out just 19.1% of the time.
Over the entirety of the season, San Diego has hit righties significantly more effectively than lefties, as it holds a third-best wRC+ of 116 against righties, compared to an 18th-ranked wRC+ versus lefties.
That should work in the Padres' favor in this matchup, as Anderson, Elder and Smith-Shawver are all righties.
The Braves will have two quality lefties available out of the bullpen in Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer, but both pitched yesterday, and the Braves should sorely miss AJ Minter in this series.
At +170, I see value backing King to record a win in this spot. He matches up quite well versus the Braves and will have a good chance to receive plenty of run support early in this matchup, before a well-rested Padres bullpen takes over.
Pick: Michael King to Record a Win (+170)
Parlay to Back the Padres
Backing King to record a win and the Padres to cover -2.5 at +290 also looks like an interesting angle.
If the Braves are in bad shape early in this matchup, they could put in their worst available arms out of the bullpen and completely punt the game in order to have a better chance tomorrow.
Betting into a game script of the Padres having a great offensive day also makes sense.
Pick: King to Record a Win + Padres -2.5 Parlay (+280)
How to Bet This Star
Tatis has been in excellent form at the plate since returning to the lineup on September 2, as he's slugged .578 with a .868 OPS.
He holds a 63% hard-hit rate in that span, a xBA of .288 and a 16.9% barrel rate. He's slugged .547 against RHP this season, and in all likelihood, he'll match up against some soft righties to start this matchup.
In the last 10 games of the season, Tatis held an absurd 64.3% hard-hit rate and put up a .844 OPS.
At anything better than +100, I see value backing Tatis to continue his power-hitting tear in this matchup.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
