The Padres (93-69) took Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series by the score of 4-0 over the Braves (89-73) behind a dominant performance from Michael King and a pair of home runs from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Higashioka.
The Braves will hand the ball to Max Fried (11-10, 3.25 ERA) to keep their season alive. Marcell Ozuna (.302, 39 HR, 104 RBI) will look to get him some run support, while Luis Arraez (.314, 4 HR, 46 RBI) will be the first batter he faces.
Read further for my NL Wild Card Player Props and predictions.
Alex Hinton's Braves vs Padres Player Props — Game 2
- Max Fried Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-150, DraftKings)
- Luis Arraez and Marcell Ozuna One-Hit Parlay (-119, FanDuel)
Is Fried Fade-Worthy?
Max Fried Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-150)
The Braves were placed in a bind for Game 1 both by the doubleheader on Monday and likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale being unavailable for the series due to back spasms. In an emergency, they turned to AJ Smith-Shawver, the No. 2 prospect in their farm system. It was a difficult spot for the 21-year-old against a dangerous Padres lineup and after the first two batters he faced, the Padres had a 2-0 lead.
Smith-Shawver had been in the minors rehabbing an injury and had a 4.86 ERA in Triple-A. However, despite Fried's pedigree, the two may be closer than you think in the postseason.
Fried has had his moments in the postseason with a few scoreless outings of 7+ innings. However, he has a career 4.57 ERA in the postseason. Dating back to 2020, he has allowed two earned runs in seven of his last 11 postseason starts — including nine runs (seven earned) in his last two playoff starts against the Phillies.
Additionally, Fried has a 2.30 ERA in five starts against the Padres. While that is strong, he has allowed two earned runs in two of his last three starts against the Padres, with four and three earned runs allowed in the two overs.
Fried very well may answer the bell and atone for his recent postseason struggles. However, a quality start with six innings and two earned runs allowed still clears this line.
Perfect Storm for Arraez and Ozuna
Luis Arraez and Marcell Ozuna One-Hit Parlay (-119)
Arraez got the Padres' rally started in the bottom of the first with a leadoff single — as he has done many times this season. Arraez has hit .300 in five of his six MLB seasons (hitting .294 in the other) and this season, he finished fourth in the MLB with a .314 batting average. To top it off, he finished the regular season with a hit in 14 of his last 19 games, pushing it to 15 of 20 after last night.
Arraez hit .271 against left-handed pitchers this season. Despite the left-on-left matchup, he is 4-for-8 against Fried and has a hit in 12 of his last 13 games against the Braves. He is also hitting .333 against right-handers just in case he faces one later in the game.
Meanwhile, Ozuna, who has struggled in Atlanta's previous two postseason runs, also went 1-for-4 last night. Dating back to 2019 with the Cardinals, he hit .324 in 2019 with the Cardinals and then, in the following year, hit .255 with the Braves, totaling five home runs and 16 runs batted in between the two postseasons.
All the conditions favor Ozuna getting on base tonight. He hit .297 against right-handed pitching, .317 on the road, and .327 in night games.
He also has hits against four different Padres relievers – Jeremiah Estrada, Bryan Hoeing, Tanner Scott, and Robert Suarez — with home runs off Hoeing and Scott.
In an ideal world, Ozuna gets a hit in the top half of the first inning, Arraez follows in the bottom half, the Padres score two runs in the inning again, and we have a sweep by the start of the second inning.
