I know many of you (like myself) love to have an excuse to forgo responsibilities at work and sweat out a game in the middle of the day. What better way to kick off a work week than by watching the first game of a doubleheader between the Padres and Braves?
The Padres took care of business on Sunday night baseball behind a terrific performance from Yu Darvish, and they slugged three homers along the way. They'll send their ace Dylan Cease to the mound, and he'll be up against Reynaldo Lopez, who is having a terrific season in his own right.
I've cooked up a nice 3-leg same game parlay that should get the juices flowing to start your week. Since it is a parlay, I always recommend betting 1/4 your typical unit size, since it is hard enough to win a singular bet.
Here is what I'm rolling with for my Braves vs Padres SGP this Monday afternoon.
Braves vs Padres SGP (+1000; FanDuel)
- Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Jackson Merrill to Steal a Base (+325)
- Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
There is no questioning how good of a start to the season Lopez is having, but it is time for a reality check. Lopez's ERA sits at a ridiculous 1.34, but his xERA is 3.71.
His ERA is respectable, but the fact that it is double his current ERA is gives me cause for concern. It seems that Lopez is benefiting from a lot of loud outs, meaning hitters are squaring the ball up but are hitting them directly at a position player.
His walk rate is nearly three per nine innings and hitters are interestingly taking a lot more pitches in the zone against him compared to years in the past. The Padres are in the bottom-5 in strikeout rate per game, and their offense has thrived against right-handed pitching all season.
I do not expect Lopez to get more than four punchouts throughout his start, and he could be headed for an early exit if all the regression strikes at once.
Jackson Merrill to Steal a Base (+325)
Here is a golden opportunity to juice up our SGP and I specifically wanted to target hitters with speed. Merill typically hits in the bottom-third of the batting order against right-handed starters, but that should not discourage you.
Merrill is quietly having a solid season for the Padres, entering with a .291 batting average and seven stolen bases. Due to Lopez's early season success, I was hesitant to include any Padres' hitters' props.
However, I remembered that Lopez is horrific at holding runners on, so I was able to look into how often base runners are stealing against him. Lopez has allowed nine stolen bases while on the rubber, with just one runner caught stealing.
Merrill has terrific speed and has no issue taking off when he has to. Hitting in the bottom third of the order actually works in our favor here as I could see the Padres being more aggressive on the bases to set up the top of the order with runners in scoring position.
Due to a high walk rate for Lopez and a decent hitting matchup for Merrill, do not be surprised to see him take off and swipe a bag early in this game.
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
We are paying a bit of a steep price, but it is hard not to target Cease's strikeouts here. Cease is off to a phenomenal start to the 2024 season and is certainly in the conversation for a CY-Young award if he keeps it up.
Cease has racked up 68 strikeouts in 55 innings pitched thus far, and now draws a Braves offense that is top-10 in baseball in strikeouts per game. The Braves onpaper are obviously a very dangerous offense, but a lot of their hitters are off to a slow start.
Matt Olson has yet to get it going and leads the team in strikeouts (46). Here is a list of Braves hitters with 37 or more strikeouts on the season:
-Ronald Acuna
-Michael Harris
-Austin Riley
-Jarred Kelenic
-Marcell Ozuna
That is quite alarming for an offense that was so effective last season. With that being said, Cease has a great matchup to generate at least seven strikeouts as long as he can keep his pitch-count down.
