Braves vs. Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | -135 |
| Phillies Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Philadelphia saw an all-too-familiar script play out in Monday's series opener, as the Phillies bullpen collapsed late on route to a 5-3 loss to it's NL East rival Braves.
Ranger Suarez has been a modest early-season disappointment for the Phillies after a spectacular 2021. On Wednesday, Suarez aspires to lead his team to a big win over Kyle Wright, who has contrarily been surprisingly strong throughout the first half of the season.
Can the Phillies pull off the upset as home underdogs with the underachieving Suarez on the mound?
Atlanta Braves
Kyle Wright has consistently struggled in each of his first five seasons. So, his excellent early results certainly came as a surprise — even if the Vanderbilt product was once highly touted.
In his last two outings Wright has pitched to an alarming ERA of 7.15. However, that mark has come with a ton of soft contact getting down for hits, including an average exit velocity of just 84mph on his 10 hits allowed versus the Cubs.
Wright's xwOBA has actually improved over the last 100 at-bats, and it is plausible that his strong early results will return with some improved luck on balls in-play moving forward.
Wright has pitched to a strong QOPA of 4.54, including an elite curveball with a rating of 5.04.
Atlanta has been scorching-hot against left-handed pitching during the last month and has hit to a second-best 123 wRC+ throughout the 2022 campaign.
The Braves boast the league's third-best bullpen ERA at 3.08 and field few arms that do not offer a notable edge over the notoriously poor Phillies pen.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia has been far less potent against right-handed pitching in 2022, with a 98 wRC+ and a .311 wOBA in 1,934 plate appearances. During the last two weeks, Philly's wOBA versus righties has dipped to .268.
The current Phillies lineup features only four bats with a xwOBA above .340 during the last month, which illustrates how concerning the loss of Bryce Harper is offensively. Harper reports the best splits versus righties of any Phillies batter.
Ranger Suarez has put together a surprisingly lackluster campaign, with a 4.14 xERA. He has allowed a .348 wOBA to righties this season, and Atlanta's projected lineup features potent bats versus left-handed pitching that will challenge Suarez.
Atlanta has hit to a 46.6 run value against the fastball — a pitch that Suarez has thrown 67% of the time.
Granted, one game is not a statistically significant sample size, but Atlanta did crush Suarez for five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on May 25. That performance is not particularly surprising, because the Braves appear to match up well against Suarez.
Braves-Phillies Pick
Even with Bryce Harper in the lineup, Philadelphia has produced lesser results versus right-handed pitching. That should continue against Wright, who has been notably unlucky to yield such an uptick of hits during his last several outings.
Even without Acuna Jr., Atlanta features a number of batters in Swanson, Riley, D'Arnaud, Contreras and Duvall who have favorable splits versus left-handed pitching. Those Braves hitters could do damage against a pitcher in Ranger Suarez who fares far worse against right-handed bats.
At -140 I see value backing the Braves in a spot where a lot of numbers indicate a wealth of advantages for tonight's contest.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -140 (Play to -150)
