Braves vs Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8.5 -122/ +102 | +1.5 -175 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -137 | 8.5 -122/ +102 | -1.5 +143 |
The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies have been two of the hottest teams in baseball in June, setting up the potential for a great series.
On Tuesday night, the Braves took Game 1 of the series, 4-2, on the strength of a pair of home runs from Austin Riley and Matt Olson.
The Braves have now won seven straight games, eight of their last 10, and four of the five meetings against the Phillies this season.
The Phillies have won 12 of their last 15 games and will look to rebound at home tonight. They will hand the ball to Aaron Nola to get that done with AJ Smith-Shawver opposing him.
The Phillies are slight favorites at home with the total being set at 8.5 runs.
Atlanta Braves
Last night, Spencer Strider continued his regular season dominance of the Phillies with nine strikeouts in six innings and allowing just one run.
The Braves have another potential strikeout artist in 20-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver. In 110 career minor league innings, he had 164 strikeouts. Thus far he has racked up 11 in 13 and 1/3 innings in his first three MLB appearances, the last two being starts. He punched out six in 5 and 2/3 innings in his last start against Colorado.
In addition to the strikeouts, Smith-Shawver has pitched well with a 2.03 ERA, 2.65 xERA, and allowing hard hits at just a 32.4% rate. The Phillies will be his toughest assignment as a major league starter. However, if he falters, his offense may have his back.
The Braves gave him eight runs of support against the Rockies, and they may be excited to see Aaron Nola tonight. Atlanta tagged Nola for five runs and three home runs on eight hits in six innings in Atlanta back in May.
Austin Riley was responsible for two of the home runs off Nola in that game, and he has owned that matchup in his career. He is hitting .444 with five homers and nine RBIs in 45 career at-bats against Nola.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is hitting .350 with four home runs and nine RBIs against Nola in 40 career at-bats. Marcell Ozuna also homered off Nola in May, and he has hit four off him in 43 at-bats. Michael Harris II and Travis d'Arnaud each have two home runs against, Nola as well.
Philadelphia Phillies
Coming off a 2022 season in which he had a 3.25 ERA, 6.0 WAR and 235 strikeouts in 205 innings, Nola has had an up-and-down season in 2023. He enters tonight's start 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 94 and 2/3 innings.
Nola has allowed four runs or more in six of his last nine starts. Three of his better outings in that span have come at Citizens Bank Park, where he is 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39 innings this season.
Nola has been a bit unlucky this season as he has a 3.65 xERA. However, he also has failed to limit damage and has suffered blow-up innings in his starts. In his last start in Arizona, he allowed all four runs in the third inning, though the Phillies were able to rally and get him a win. Nola has allowed multiple runs in one inning in nine of 14 starts this season.
For the Phillies, this will be their first look at Smith-Shawver, so there is not any matchup data. However, they will look to Kyle Schwarber to pace their offensive attack once again.
Few hitters love June as much as Schwarber does. He is hitting .264 with seven home runs, 14 RBIs and a .987 OPS this month, and he is hitting .333 over the last week.
Nick Castellanos also has been in top form. He is hitting .400 with three home runs and 15 RBIs this month. He enters play on a seven-game hitting streak.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Pick
The Braves offense enters this game hot and has scored at least four runs in eight straight games and in nine of their last 10 games.
For his career, Nola is 15-10 with a 3.51 ERA against the Braves. However, he has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five regular season starts against Atlanta dating back to last season. Two of those starts were in Philadelphia.
I expect the Braves to get to Nola in this outing, and they may do so early. However, if we get the good version of Nola, I also like their chances against the Phillies bullpen.
Philadelphia is 21st in the Major Leagues with 4.23 bullpen ERA. Ranger Suarez was able to keep the Braves offense in check through six innings on Tuesday, but they scored three runs off the Phillies' bullpen.
FanDuel has Atlanta's team total runs set at four runs. I don't mind that line, but four would push our bet, so we would need five runs to hit the over. DraftKings, though, has the total at 3.5 runs, eliminating a push as a possibility.
Between their recent success against Nola and Philadelphia's porous bullpen, I expect the Braves to score at least four runs tonight.
