Call Game 3 the "Staredown Game."
As expected, after Orlando Arcia mocked Bryce Harper following the Braves' Game 2 victory, Harper responded in a big way as he went 2-for-5 with two home runs totaling 822 feet and drove in four, cashing virtually every prop available for him. Nick Castellanos also joined Harper in hitting two home runs as they became the fourth pair of teammates to hit two home runs in the same postseason game.
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 11, 2023
Additionally, Aaron Nola fully climbed his strikeout ladder, and Austin Riley collected two hits and two total bases, giving us a sweep in Game 3. We are now 5-1 over the last two games in this series on our player prop bets. Looking ahead to Game 4, the Braves are favored to force a decisive Game 5. However, they are 1-5 in playoff games in Philadelphia in franchise history, losing the last three over the last two seasons.
The Braves will have one of their aces on the mound in Spencer Strider, and the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez.
Find my player prop picks for Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 below.
Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 Player Props
Spencer Strider led the MLB with 281 strikeouts in the regular season, and he punched out a lot of Phillies along the way. Strider had at least nine strikeouts in all four regular season starts against the Phillies, including 11 on September 19. Last season, he also had starts with 13 and 10 strikeouts against the Phillies.
Strider did get the ball in Game 1 and went under this line. However, he just missed by finishing with eight strikeouts in seven innings. He also pitched very well, scattering five hits and allowing two runs with one of them being unearned.
Like his teammates, Strider will have to overcome some demons to force a Game 5 on Saturday night. Last year, he was shelled for five runs in the third inning and lasted just 2 1/3 innings. It was eerily similar to yesterday's Game 3, as Strider and Bryce Elder both dominated the first two innings and never got out of the third, with Elder allowing six runs yesterday.
However, I am backing Strider here because he has dominated this matchup in his career. Overall against the Phillies, he is 8-0 with a 1.90 ERA, 72 strikeouts in just 47 regular season innings and is coming off a quality start against them last Saturday. Additionally, Strider is the Braves' Cy Young candidate with 20 wins and the strikeouts title. The Braves will need a Cy Young-caliber performance from Strider to keep their season alive.
Ranger Suarez also started Game 1 against Strider and outdueled him, allowing one hit and one walk in a scoreless outing. However, he did not last very long, pitching only 3 2/3 innings and cashing this line rather easily. He set down 11 batters on Saturday, and today, we have two more outs of cushion. There are multiple ways to cash this line.
The first is rather simple and calls for Suarez to struggle in this outing. The Braves hit .288 against left-handers as a team. They have a .870 OPS and average one home run per every 16.8 at-bats against left-handers compared to an .837 OPS and one home run per every 18.6 at-bats against right-handers.
Suarez has a very strong 3.00 career ERA against the Braves. However, he has allowed four home runs against them, and Austin Riley (.333) and Matt Olson (.294) have enjoyed success against him.
The other path to cashing this under is if manager Rob Thompson is very aggressive with his bullpen and goes for the kill in Game 4. Thompson knows he has an ace (literally) in the hole with Zack Wheeler lined up for Game 5. Wheeler will work deep into the game, and based on the last two postseasons, the Phillies will have an advantage in starting pitching with him starting against Max Fried.
The Phillies also got 5 2/3 innings from Aaron Nola yesterday, and with a comfortable lead after the third inning, the bullpen did not have any high-stress innings. They did not have to use Jose Alvarado or Craig Kimbrel, and with a scheduled day off on Friday, the bullpen will have a day to rest if the Braves force a Game 5.
Suarez has pitched seven innings in two postseason starts against the Braves over the last two years. He can cash this under even if he completes four full innings.
Pick: Ranger Suarez Under 12.5 Outs Recorded -155
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