The Atlanta Braves are suddenly on the outside of the playoffs looking in after losing two straight to the Dodgers, sitting a game back of the Mets for the final NL wild-card spot.
That sets up an interesting series this week in Cincinnati, where the Reds will look to play spoiler against a team that's struggled to hit the ball in the last couple of weeks and has endured some poor starts from its rotation.
What can we expect out of Brandon Williamson on Tuesday against a volatile Braves lineup? Who are the players to target in this one? Let's get into my Braves-Reds MLB parlay for Tuesday, September 17.
Kenny Ducey's Braves vs Reds MLB Parlay Picks for Tuesday
- Brandon Williamson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
- Matt Olson 2+ Total Bases (-105)
- Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Parlay Odds: +400 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Brandon Williamson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Braves vs Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
With Atlanta using an opener in Grant Holmes, Williamson will be the lone pitcher we can bet on in the player props market. That's fine with me, considering the left-hander will deal to a Braves lineup that's been arguably stronger against fly-ball pitchers than ground-ballers this season.
You rarely see a team hit for the same average against both types, as the league average to fly-ball arms is lower, but the Braves are hitting .234 in this split with a natural 26-point jump in slugging percentage. That leads me to believe Atlanta should have a good shot at getting to Williamson, who has allowed two homers in 13 innings at this level and has failed to produce good strikeout numbers despite some friendly matchups.
I want to focus in on the last part there, however. Williamson hasn't worked deep into games at the MLB level yet, and as the Braves hit him, I think this could turn into an abbreviated appearance. When you factor in that he posted a 22.4% strikeout rate in four Triple-A starts this season, and 16.4% the year prior, and in his 117 innings in the majors last season he owned a 20% punchout rate, this doesn't look like a great spot to play the over.
The Braves have struck out in fewer than 19% of plate appearances over the last two weeks and have worked a ton of walks, so with their patience we should come in comfortably under the total.
Matt Olson 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Braves vs Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
As the Braves enter this one ranked eighth in wRC+ to left-handers, there are several options to choose from here. Matt Olson, however, ticks all the boxes and has been red hot in the last week or so.
The slugger has hit .387 over his last nine contests, recording four multi-hit games and going for two or more total bases in six of them. He's hitting .261 off righties this year with a .509 slugging percentage, and in the last calendar month he's sporting a .280 Expected Batting Average (xBA) against left-handers, with a .523 Expected Slugging (xSLG).
Olson's numbers against fly-ball pitchers — like Williamson — have been the best of the three splits as categorized by Baseball Reference, and he's also mashed cut fastballs — Williamson's preferred delivery — to the tune of a .305 average and .525 slugging percentage.
Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Braves vs Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
While Holmes may not be a big-time strikeout pitcher, he'll lead things off for a Braves bullpen that has led baseball with a 28.7% punchout rate in the last 30 days. On top of that, the team will draw the Reds, who have continued to struggle with strikeouts of late.
Cincinnati's still ranked sixth-to-last in punchout rate this season, and in the last two weeks that number has shot up to 27.2% to represent the fifth-worst mark in the bigs. There's been no bigger culprit than Elly De La Cruz, who has struck out in 46% of his plate appearances, a number he's cushioned a bit with a good 14% walk rate.
The story here for De La Cruz, then, shouldn't feature much damage on contact. He's hitting just .209 in the last two weeks, and with his all-too-patient approach, he's failed to rack up total bases — save for some sporadic power.
I don't see the slugger racking up multiple hits tonight, and while he may reach once or twice on a walk, the strikeout trends lead me to believe that we'll ultimately see a very quiet night at the dish.
