Braves vs. Rockies Odds
| Braves Odds | -175 |
| Rockies Odds | +155 |
| Over/Under | 11 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Atlanta Braves are now 52 games into their World Series title defense and have yet to win three consecutive games. They should have a great opportunity to do so Friday with Max Fried on the mound as considerable favorites at -175.
Chad Kuhl will take the mound for the Rockies Friday and he is 4-2 in 48 innings with a 3.56 ERA in 2022, with an ERA of just 2.61 over his last two outings.
Can Kuhl build upon those two starts against a Braves team that has struggled on the road this season?
Braves Starting To Hit
Atlanta's offense has started trending in the right direction over the last week, averaging 5.85 runs scored per game with a 136 wRC+ and .371 wOBA.
Improved results at the plate are not surprising when we look toward Atlanta's season-long expected batting rates, including an xWOBA of .341 that ranks eighth and an xWOBACON of .430 that's best in the league.
Having Ronald Acuna Jr. healthy obviously makes a big difference as well, but a number of pieces in this lineup were due to find better results than we saw early on, and I believe the improved offensive play can continue moving forward.
Fried has not been as entirely dominant , yet has still not suffered a loss since April 13 vs the Nationals, and has pitched to an xERA of 3.89.
Fried has seen his contact rates rise notably so far this season, and that trend has continued over his last 100 PAs.
Fried's QOPA remains consistent with his mark from 2021, and is hanging in at 4.62, and his fastball and curveball spin rates have improved as well, while his walk rate is down to an anemic 4.4%.
Altogether, it seems surprising me to look at Fried's hard-hit rates and see the notable uptick considering his stuff looks pretty on point with each of the previous excellent seasons, and I will be interested to see if that trend continues.
Kuhl Solid For Rockies
The Rockies have been surprisingly dominant vs left-handed pitching throughout this 2022 season, and at a minimum the splits have to be considered something worth noting entering this matchup with Fried.
The Rockies have hit to a league-leading +122 wRC+ against lefties, with a .367 wOBA. The Rockies expected batting rates suggest regression is coming, which seems logical looking toward some pieces in this lineup and our expectations heading in to the season, but obviously those numbers still speak for themselves.
Kuhl has been a pleasant surprise as well for the Rockies, and leads the starting rotation with his 3.56 ERA. His xERA of 3.71 suggests his results have been fair, but his hard-hit rates and K/BB ratio could be concerning entering a contest with the Braves in what should be very favorable hitting conditions at Coors.
Kuhl's QOPA is also at a very low mark of 3.82 this season, which is a highly concerning mark even if you put minimal stock into quality of pitch averages effectiveness.
That mark goes hand-in-hand with Kuhl's opponents chase rate of just 24% since the start of last season, which is tied for the third lowest in the MLB among pitchers with over 100 innings.
Braves-Rockies Pick
This sets up as a good spot for Atlanta's red-hot offense to put together another big outing at Coors Field off of Kuhl and the Rockies, and I see value backing the Braves team total at +100 to go over 6.5.
The game total to go over 11 looks a reasonable play as well considering Colorado's significantly better splits vs lefties, but it still would not surprise me to see Fried manage a strong outing, and I would prefer to just play for a big Braves output.
Pick: Atlanta Braves Team Total over 6.5 +100 (Play to -110)
