Braves vs. Rockies Odds
| Braves Odds | -180 |
| Rockies Odds | +152 |
| Over/Under | 11.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Fresh off a late-night rubber match at Coors Field that went into extra innings, the Atlanta Braves look to win their third straight against the Colorado Rockies on Saturday night.
Colorado looks to bounce back behind veteran left-hander Kyle Freeland, while the Braves match with 23-year-old Spencer Strider.
Can the pitchers replicate a low-scoring output similar to yesterday, or will the ball be flying around Coors Field on Saturday night?
Braves Crush Left-Handed Pitching
While the Braves have had a sluggish start to the season offensively, there's one area where they've excelled: hitting left-handers.
The splits are night and day. The Braves slash .259/.338/.459 compared to a .234/.298/.393 drop against right-handers.
Players like Austin Riley and Travis d'Arnaud see their averages jump around .100, and the team threatens offensively a lot more against southpaws.
In fact, Atlanta ranks first in wRC+ and isolated power against southpaws, and third in wOBA. Against right-handers? They drop to 18th in wRC+ and 20th in wOBA.
Take this series, for instance. They opened against left-hander Austin Gomber and tattooed him for nine runs over five innings. The next day, against righty Chad Kuhl, it took Atlanta until the 10th to score.
Strider also provides a nice boost on Saturday night. The 23-year-old has a 3.13 xERA and has held opponents to a .209 xBA. He does, however, have a double-digit walk rate and ranks in the bottom 20% in barrel rate.
This is Strider's second start of his career. He tossed 4 1/3 innings of three-run ball against Arizona his last time out.
What to Expect From Kyle Freeland at Coors Field
It's hard for any pitcher to sustain long-term success at Coors Field. And that's been the case for left-hander Freeland, who's struggled to find success at home in 2022.
On the road, Freeland has a 3.00 ERA over four starts. He generates more swings and misses, and limits opponents both average (.238) wise and slugging (.357).
But at Coors Field, where the second-friendliest hitters park, per MLB Park Factors, Freeland's numbers balloon. In six starts, his ERA is 6.25, and opponents hit .328 against the southpaw with slugging creeping into the .500s.
Freeland's velocity has dropped nearly a mile per hour on his hard stuff from last season, and his numbers have taken a hit as a result. His xERA sits at 4.85, and he's nearing a career-worst xBA (.283).
Even more alarming is the fact his hard-hit rate has jumped to 42.9%. He ranks right around the bottom 25% of all pitchers, as opposed to 2021 when he ranked in the top 25%.
Yes, Freeland has been great on the road. But he pitches a majority of games at Coors Field — including tonight — where he's been ineffective.
Braves-Rockies Pick
This is an interesting game, mostly because it's at Coors Field. I think the Braves hold the obvious advantage and are priced as relatively-heavy favorites because of it.
They should be able to tee off against Freeland. Atlanta is arguably the best offense against left-handed pitching and draws Freeland, who has drastic home-road splits.
And while Strider has been solid for Atlanta, he won't pitch deep into the game and force the Braves to use the bullpen early — especially if the balls are flying around Coors Field.
The Rockies offense has been effective in the early season and hit .280 at home with a .447 slugging percentage. Strider does give up a decent amount of barrels, which could be a recipe for disaster and the reason why I'm staying away from a side on Saturday night.
Tack on the fact that Colorado has the worst bullpen ERA (5.27) in all of MLB, and I think the total holds some value here.
Back the over in what should be a fun, high-scoring bout to finish off your Saturday night slate.
Pick: Over 11.5 (Play to 12)
