Braves vs. Rockies Odds
| Braves Odds | -145 |
| Rockies Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 12 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Colorado Rockies played a pair of wild games against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday at Coors Field.
In the opener, the Rockies were crushed in a 14-1 rout before rallying in the nightcap for a thrilling 13-12 win in 10 innings. Colorado (23-27), which was wasn't expected to contend for the playoffs, enters Thursday’s contest 10 games out of first place in the National League West.
As for the Braves, the defending World Series champion is also below .500 (24-27) and 10.5 games back in their NL East.
Despite the respective preseason expectations, these teams have some similarities, but who will get the job done in this latest meeting? Let’s take a look to see where we can find the best value ahead of this matchup.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves bring a middle-of-the-pack offense into the latest game at Coors Field. Atlanta is 15th overall in runs scored, but have started to pick it up of late.
Looking to spoil that momentum is Austin Gomber for the Rockies. He’s a solid pitcher, posting a 4.66 xFIP, 17 percent K%, 9 percent BB% and 47% ground-ball percentage this year.
Pitching on familiar soil is kind of Gomber's thing, as he has a 4.13 ERA at home this season and had a 2.09 ERA at home last year.
The Braves offense has to be licking their chops, though, as Gomber has had some struggles with right-handed hitters and the Braves mostly bat from that side of the plate. Gomber has allowed a .176 ISO and has a 9% BB% against right-handed batters.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley and William Contreras are right-handed hitters with at least a .200 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season.
Colorado Rockies
Ian Anderson's 4.34 ERA is better than Gomber's 5.51 ERA, but his 5.34 xFIP is actually worse than Gomber's 4.66 xFIP this season.
Anderson's strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers are all fairly similar to Gomber, though, as he has a 17% K%, 11% BB% and 46% ground-ball percentage.
The Colorado offense also has quite a few good matchups, as Anderson has allowed a .156 ISO to left-handed hitters and .184 ISO to right-handed hitters. Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon and C.J. Cron each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching.
Braves-Rockies Pick
I like the over here.
While 11 runs are a lot, at least one team scored that many in each game during Wednesday’s doubleheader.
That said, I think both teams have good matchups on the offensive side of the ball. The Braves also deserve to be favored, as I think they have an edge at the plate. Gomber can also be tough at home, so I really don't see value when it comes to Atlanta on a moneyline wager.
The model I use is projected this game for around 12.5 runs, so I like the odds we’re getting on the total clearing 11 runs and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Over 11 (-120)
