Editor's Note: With the Braves-Tigers game on Tuesday night being postponed because of rain, this matchup will now be a doubleheader. The first game will feature Spencer Strider vs. Michael Lorenzen. The pitching matchup in the second game is unknown as of this writing. The game guide below was written before the postponement, and features the initial matchup of A.J. Smith-Shawver vs. Lorenzen.
Braves vs. Tigers Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -164 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 -102 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +138 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -118 |
It seems like the Atlanta Braves have an assembly line of young starting pitchers able to join the team and excel immediately. A.J. Smith-Shawver is one of the latest examples, with a pair of strong outings under his belt. On Wednesday, he will face Michael Lorenzen and the Detroit Tigers.
Lorenzen has actually been a solid pitcher this season and has put up some strong numbers.
Atlanta’s lineup has been on fire in June, but since Lorenzen can go deep into games and Smith-Shawver should fare well against a weak lineup, this game should go under the total.
Atlanta Braves
Smith-Shawver has thrown 7 2/3 innings against the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks this season. He has allowed only six baserunners (three walks) and has yet to allow an earned run. He started the season in High-A, moved to Double-A, then was in Triple-A until two weeks ago, when he was promoted to Atlanta. Across the minors, he held a 1.03 ERA over seven starts. There's a reason he's ranked among the game's top 100 prospects.
AJ Smith-Shawver ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/TaQfMwd0V5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 10, 2023
The Braves can hit, too. They have a 133 wRC+ off of right-handed pitching in June, paired with a 19.2% strikeout rate and an .869 OPS. They have six players with a xwOBA over .340, showing the top of the order can hit. However, it drops off dramatically from there.
In relief, the Braves do have some issues. Smith-Shawver can go five-plus, but Atlanta needs a bridge to the late innings. This is where the total may come into question, but look for Jesse Chavez, A.J. Minter and/or Nick Anderson to make an impact on this game.
Detroit Tigers
Lorenzen has been a nice surprise for Detroit fans. Although he holds a sub-20% strikeout rate, he only walks 5.5% of hitters and has a 3.75 ERA against a 3.82 xERA. At times, he will permit hard contact (40th percentile in Hard Hit Rate), but he just needs to get through a few bats at the top of the order to make an impact.
The Tigers are the antithesis of the Braves, as they can't hit right-handed pitching. In June, Detroit has a 65 wRC+ and a 28.2% strikeout rate.
In relief, the Tigers have been better than the Braves. They have four arms with an xFIP below 4.00, and Lorenzen has thrown six-plus innings in all but one start since May 1. (In that start he threw 5 2/3 innings.)
Braves vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Yes, the Braves have a great offense, but Lorenzen and the Detroit bullpen can help mitigate the damage and help us cash this under. Detroit is also horrible at hitting righties and may struggle with Smith-Shawver. Take this under from 9 (-120), and play it to 8 (-120).
Pick: Under 9 | Play to 8 |
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