Braves vs. Tigers Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -267 | 8.5 -105/ -115 | -1.5 -155 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+215 | 8.5 -105/ -115 | +1.5 +130 |
The Detroit Tigers will throw pitching prospect Reese Olson on Tuesday night.
Though Olson has been solid in two outings (one start), it's worth noting they came against against the struggling offenses of the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago White Sox. On Tuesday, he will not have that luxury, as he faces Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves at Comerica Park.
The Braves can hammer right-handed pitching and have done so thus far in June. In addition, Strider is probably the most consistent ace in baseball. He is one of the best arms in the game, so it's going to be hard for a paltry lineup — like Detroit’s — to handle him.
Given that the Tigers don't have many dominant relief arms, the over for the Braves team total should be in play.
Atlanta Braves
Strider was trounced in his last outing versus the New York Mets, allowing eight earned runs. Before that, he had not allowed more than four in an outing.
His 3.79 ERA on the season is decent, but his xERA is even better at 2.87. The issue is that last outing against New York ballooned some of his peripherals. His Barrel Rate is now over 10% and his Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph. Given the large moneyline in this game, it is tough to back Strider despite the plus matchup.
The Braves lineup, however, has been crushing the ball. Against righties in June, they have a 135 wRC+ with an .877 OPS. Outside of Ehire Adrianza, the rest of their position players have been pretty healthy.
Ronald Acuña Jr. owns a .400+ xwOBA off right-handers this season. The Braves have five other hitters at .340+, so the bulk of their lineup has been reliable against righties since opening day. Sean Murphy and Acuña, specifically, have hit right-handed sliders well — a pitch Olson throws often.
In relief, the Braves have had some trouble since May 13. They have a 4.39 xFIP with three arms below 4.00. Luckily, Strider can pitch deep into games — against Detroit, he should get through at least five innings.
Detroit Tigers
To Olson’s credit, he's pitched well in two outings. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.5 mph though, which is a bit high given he faced inconsistent offenses — especially against righties — in the Phillies and the White Sox. Before being called up, Olson had a 6.38 ERA over 36 2/3 innings at Triple-A Toledo.
The Tigers have also been horrid at the dish, particularly against righty pitching — they have a 48 wRC+ with a 28.7% strikeout rate in June. Only the Chicago Cubs have been worse.
Detroit is mostly healthy with the exception of outfielder Riley Green, who is on the injured list with a stress reaction in his left fibula. Still, Strider should fare well. On the season, only Zach McKinstry and Kerry Carpenter have xwOBAs above .340 against righties.
Relief is an area in which the Tigers have fared well over the last month. They have a 4.16 team xFIP, with five arms below the 4.00 threshold. This is considerably more reliable than Atlanta’s relief corps.
That said, Detroit will have to throw some weaker arms as a bridge from Olson to their back-end relievers.
Braves vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Strider should bounce back against a lackluster Detroit offense that doesn't hit well even at full strength. But because Atlanta's bullpen can't be trusted, the moneyline is just too expensive to play.
The Braves offense should find success against Olson though, and that's my angle for this game.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over 5 (-125 | Play to -133)
